By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Sure, I’ll do an Election Eve reside weblog. Take pleasure in your weekend. –lambert

Hen Tune of the Day

Frequent Nightingale, Santpoort, Noord-Holland, Netherlands’

In Case You May Miss…

1. Friday’s RCP polling: Dangerous information for Trump.
2. Epstein on Trump (final minute tape).
3. Boeing to vote on new contract Monday (“slight enchancment”).

Search for the Helpers

After all, dentistry must be free on the level of care, like all well being care.

My e-mail deal with is down by the plant; please ship examples of there (“Helpers” within the topic line). In our more and more determined and fragile neoliberal society, on a regular basis regular incidents and tales of “the communism of on a regular basis life” are what I’m searching for (and never, say, the Pink Cross in Hawaii, and even the UNWRA in Gaza).

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Transition

“Trump, Harris camps put together to ‘go to the mattress’ in election authorized battles” [The Hill]. “Hours after Steve Bannon was launched from jail Tuesday upon serving a four-month stint for evading a congressional subpoena, the onetime adviser to former President Trump sounded the alarm in regards to the upcoming election. ‘The Democrats should not going to surrender,’ he advised reporters. ‘They only employed Marc Elias. And also you solely rent Marc Elias — who I believe is the hardest election lawyer within the nation — you solely rent Marc Elias once you wish to go to the mattress.’ Elias, a frontrunner of Vice President Harris’s election litigation efforts, hit again: ‘My group of attorneys is best than the GOP’s. And we’re able to beat them once more in 2024.’ The change got here simply days till the nation decides who will subsequent occupy the White Home — and the expectation {that a} dramatic authorized standoff awaits, which each the Trump and Harris campaigns are making ready for. Already, there are greater than 200 voting and election instances pending throughout the nation, in line with Elias’s tally, with many in key battleground states that would alter the trajectory of the election’s consequence. For weeks, attorneys for the Republican and Democratic events have gone toe-to-toe in courtrooms on challenges to voter rolls, mail ballots and different election procedures.”

2024

Countdown!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

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Lambert right here: Dangerous information for Trump, as Kamala rebuilt the Blue Wall. However for those who have a look at the outcomes with the Toss-Up states turned purple or blue… After all, we on the surface may as properly be analyzing the entrails of birds after we attempt to predict what is going to occur to the subset of voters (undecided; irregular) in a subset of states (swing), and the irregulars, particularly, who will decide the result of the election however may as properly be quantum foam, however presumably the marketing campaign professionals have higher knowledge, and have the state of affairs as below management as it may be _{MR SUBLIMINAL Fooled ya. Kidding!}.

* * *

Kamala (D): “Full transcript: Vice President Kamala Harris interviewed by NBC Information’ Yamiche Alcindor” [NBC]. Yamiche. After all. It’s all like this: “ALCINDOR: Former first girl Michelle Obama mentioned she stays up at night time questioning why this election is so shut. Do you do this? What retains you up at night time? HARRIS: What retains me up at night time are the challenges that face the American household and my position and duty and my to-do record to handle these points. Whether or not it’s on bringing down the price of groceries, bringing down the price of housing, what we have to do to make it possible for baby care is inexpensive for working households, what I’ll do to make it possible for Medicare covers in-home look after seniors. These are the issues that hold me up, which is doing the work that may immediately influence the folks of America.” • I’ll say that Harris has her well-polished patter down chilly, and strikes her well-polished speaking factors as easily and swiftly as a three-card monte vendor. However this wasn’t actually an interview; it was simply Alcindor tossing softball after softball. And no, no matter retains Kamala up at night time, if something: this ain’t it.

Kamala (D): “Conservatives in furor over Julia Roberts advert” [The Hill]. “‘Within the one place in America the place ladies nonetheless have a proper to decide on, you may vote any approach you need. And nobody will ever know,’ Roberts says within the advert as a girl on display screen meets up along with her husband after casting her poll for Harris. The voter winks at a fellow feminine voter as her husband asks if she made the ‘proper alternative.’” Vote for Frequent Good, the nonprofit group chargeable for advert, the responded to backlash. ‘The backlash from sure males who’re horrified to suppose their wives may disagree with them truly proves our level.’” • At the least in my thoughts, it’s not the disagreement, it’s the mendacity. After all, mendacity for Democrats could be very on-brand, for those who bear in mind how your complete celebration lied, vociferously and repeatedly, about Biden’s cognitive dysfunction till he truly slipped a cog the place outsiders might see (on nationwide tv, too).

Kamala (D): “Why are so many ladies hiding their voting plans from their husbands?” [Rebecca Solnit, Guardian]. ” The unstated assumption is that numerous ladies are bullied, intimidated or managed by their companions, particularly in straight {couples} when she needs to vote for Harris and he helps Trump. The messages guarantee these intimidated voters that they will vote in peace and privateness at a polling place. However plenty of People now vote by mail, which usually means they fill out their ballots at house, the place that privateness might not be out there.” • So wait. Is Solnit saying that the celebration that pushed vote-by-mail as laborious as doable didn’t have ladies’s security as their first consideration?

* * *

Trump (R): “Scoop: What Trump is being advised” [Axios]. “The memo, addressed to ‘TEAM TRUMP,’ has the topic line: ;PRESIDENT TRUMP IS ON THE VERGE.” [Tony Fabrizio, chief pollster] attracts on Actual Clear Politics polling averages to argue that Trump’s ‘place nationally and in each single Battleground State is SIGNIFICANTLY higher at the moment than it was 4 years in the past. I level this out NOT to stoke overconfidence or complacency, however as an instance simply how shut this election is and that victory is inside our attain,’ the pollster provides. ‘However the truth stays that we nonetheless have quite a lot of work to do. Whereas the evaluation of early and absentee vote returns in every state [is] promising, we all know that the majority of President Trump voters will vote on Election Day.’ Actuality examine: Polling is as tight as any presidential race ever, with the New York Occasions common displaying Trump at 48% and Vice President Harris at 48%. The 538 common has Harris forward by 1 level — properly inside polls’ margins of error. This stays a 50-50 election, people, with polling from all seven swing states falling inside the margins of error.”

Trump (R): “CNN’s Enten: Three Indicators That Level To A Trump Victory” [Harry Enten, CNN]. “Republicans have been registering voters in huge, enormous numbers. They’ve been gaining in celebration registration versus the Democrats within the swing states with celebration registration. We’re speaking Arizona. I believe it’s a five-point – they’ve expanded their lead from 5 factors from the place it was again in 2020. How about Nevada? Massive Republican registrations there. They just like the early vote. How about North Carolina? Massive Republican registration features. How about Pennsylvania? We spoke about it earlier than a couple of months in the past, huge Republican Social gathering registration features versus the place – the place – from the place they have been 4 years in the past. So, Republicans are placing extra Republicans within the voters. The Democratic quantity versus the Republican quantity has shrunk. And so the underside line is, if Republicans win, come subsequent week, Donald Trump wins come subsequent week. The indicators all alongside may have been apparent. We’d have a look at the proper route being very low, Joe Biden’s approval score being very low, and Republicans actually registering numbers. You possibly can’t say you weren’t warned. Keep tuned.”

* * *

Trump (R): “Hearken to Jeffrey Epstein Spill Intel on Donald Trump’s White Home” (audio) [Daily Beast]. “It subsequently had a powerful topicality, which directly, in Smiley’s eyes, made it suspect.” –John LeCarré, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.

* * *

AZ: “Why Arizona Is Trying Trumpier in 2024” [New York Magazine]. Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: “I believe the vibe is certainly very pro-Trumpy. Even plenty of Republicans, together with some McCain Republicans that I’ve talked to, who weren’t actual huge followers and actually aren’t nonetheless huge followers of Trump nowadays — they don’t like the best way Kamala Harris was anointed, basically. Between that and issues over the economic system, plenty of them are simply kind of holding their noses and voting for Trump. I additionally suppose this effort to get out low-propensity voters is definitely coming to fruition in a very huge approach. Not simply by Turning Level, which relies in Arizona and is aware of the state most likely higher than it is aware of every other swing state within the nation, however by all these political teams which were engaged on the bottom over the past couple of years. Most voters in Arizona vote early. It’s been that approach for many years. We’re a pioneer of early voting. In the event you simply have a look at the returns and the way closely Republican they’re, the sample could be very a lot a pre-2020 sample the place Republicans are dominating. Nobody is aware of how they voted, however you’ve bought to suppose that plenty of these are going to be for Trump and down-ballot Republicans, and among the many impartial voters too. So simply trying on the pattern traces, Republicans are up, Democrats are down, independents are dramatically down. These are going to be the deciders, and Republicans are feeling fairly good.”

PA: “Trump lagging in early vote with seniors in Pennsylvania, a purple flag for GOP” [Politico]. “Donald Trump is lagging Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania early voting with a essential and once-reliably Republican constituency: seniors. It’s a warning signal for the previous president that displays early vote knowledge and polling throughout the battlegrounds, after Republicans gained the senior vote in every of the final 5 presidential elections. In Pennsylvania, the place voters over the age of 65 have forged practically half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58 % of votes forged by seniors, in comparison with 35 % for Republicans. That’s regardless of each events having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older. The partisan hole is narrower than it was in 2020, when views of early voting have been extra partisan, and Republicans take that as an excellent signal. However the GOP nonetheless is relying on extra of its older voters to indicate up on Election Day, whereas Democrats have extra votes within the financial institution.”

* * *

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Elite Maleficence

“Docs: Strolling pneumonia instances up on Lengthy Island, particularly amongst very younger” [Newsday]. “The CDC known as the massive variety of instances in kids between the ages of two and 4 “notable” as a result of this micro organism, on the whole, just isn’t the main explanation for pneumonia for youths that younger. Meltzer Krief mentioned sometimes, about 60% of pneumonia — a lung an infection — in kids tends to be attributable to a virus, fairly than a micro organism. However many kids being examined in emergency rooms and pediatric workplaces are testing optimistic for Mycoplasma pneumoniae.” And why? Immunity debt, after all: “”We’re seeing a fourfold improve from final yr,” mentioned Dr. Lynda Gerberg, lead pediatrician at Northwell Well being GoHealth Pediatric Pressing Care, which has facilities throughout Lengthy Island, New York Metropolis and Westchester County. She mentioned the surge could also be associated to the COVID-19 pandemic, when folks have been isolating and sporting masks. ‘We weren’t uncovered to all these micro organism and viruses,’ Gerberg mentioned. “Our immune system is simply catching up [almost five years later???]. It left all people somewhat extra vulnerable to a majority of these diseases.’” • Not that Covid weakens the immunue system, oh no no no no. Can’t have that [bangs head on desk]. In the meantime, CDC is pushing droplet dogma.

Social Norming

Hmm. We use euphemisms for some issues which can be regular. So what’s occurring?

This completely describes a phenomenon I have been speaking about for fairly a while now, particularly, that if Covid was actually normalised in society, folks would readily say its identify. The widespread use of euphemisms for the illness demonstrates that fairly the other is the case. https://t.co/7WXmh9W9mZ

— Conor Browne (@brownecfm) November 1, 2024

Stats Watch

Employment Scenario: “United States Unemployment Fee” [Trading Economics]. “The unemployment price in the USA was at 4.1% in October of 2024, remaining unchanged from the three-month low within the prior month, and aligned with market expectations. The variety of unemployed people was broadly unchanged at 7 million.”

Manufacturing: “United States ISM Manufacturing PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The ISM Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 46.5 in October 2024 from 47.2 in September and under forecasts of 47.6. The studying pointed to the one other contraction within the manufacturing sector and the worst since July 2023, as demand continues to be weak, output declined, and inputs stayed accommodative.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Machinists to vote on new contract supply meant to finish strike” [Seattle Times]. “The union introduced the proposal Thursday afternoon and really useful members approve the deal. The 33,000 hanging Machinists union members will vote on the proposal Monday. ‘It’s time for our Members to lock in these features and confidently declare victory,’ the union wrote. ‘We consider asking members to remain on strike longer wouldn’t be proper as now we have achieved a lot success.’ The supply features a 38% common wage improve over the subsequent 4 years, which compounds to roughly 43% over the lifetime of the settlement, the union mentioned in an announcement Thursday. Wages would improve 13% within the first yr, then 9%, 9% and seven% in subsequent years…. It doesn’t restore the pension plan, one thing that many union members have mentioned in latest weeks is a high precedence….Union members who voted towards the final contract proposal earlier this month mentioned the deal didn’t supply a big sufficient wage improve and didn’t deal with different key points, like paid day off and faster development steps for workers to maneuver up in Boeing’s ranks. Different workers mentioned they’d not accept a contract that didn’t restore the defined-benefit pension plan.” • Massive if true:

Absolutely Boeing’s extra prone to construct any new planes in South Carolina? I’m undecided a “Boeing or I’m not going”-quality aircraft might be constructed by scabs, although Boeing administration being what it’s, maybe they want to strive. And Ortberg was alleged to know the store flooring.

Manufacturing: “Boeing union backs sweetened contract supply that would finish strike, units vote for Monday” [CNBC]. “‘In each negotiation and strike, there’s a level the place now we have extracted the whole lot that we will in bargaining and by withholding our labor,’ the Worldwide Affiliation of Machinists and Aerospace Employees District 751 mentioned Thursday. ‘We’re at that time now and threat a regressive or lesser supply sooner or later.’”…. President Joe Biden congratulated the union and Boeing for the brand new contract proposal. ‘Machinists at Boeing have sacrificed over time and deserve a powerful contract,’ he mentioned in an announcement on Friday, shortly after the roles report was launched.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing Reaches New Deal With Union in Hopes of Ending Strike” [New York Times]. The headline is incorrect. There isn’t any deal till the employees vote. “The brand new contract supply represents a over the not too long ago rejected proposal.” • Oh.

Manufacturing: “Important Classes From The Boeing Strike” [Forbes]. “Boeing is a cautionary story of what can occur when the mindset referred to as ‘shareholder primacy‘ vanquishes the far more healthy mindset of multi-stakeholder capitalism, which acknowledges the interdependence of buyers, workers, clients, the corporate itself and the general public… 1) The strike is about rather more than simply cash. The core of this strike clearly wasn’t cash — it was damaged belief…. [I]t’s clear that the first emotion driving this strike is rage, not greed. Rage at being ignored and disrespected, yr after yr. Anybody who dismisses these strikers as grasping or ungrateful doesn’t grasp what’s actually taking place…. 2) The buck should cease with the board.… The corporate basically lied about questions of safety to its regulators, buyers, workers, and clients, not simply as soon as however yr after yr. The administrators have been both complicit in these deceptions (which might be horrible) or so indifferent from their oversight position that they didn’t discover them (which is arguably worse). Both approach, the Boeing board exhibits the results of utmost adherence to the shareholder primacy mindset…. 3) Restoration requires honest deeds, not empty phrases.…. The strikers don’t have any cause to belief Ortberg till they see tangible modifications to the corporate’s priorities and day-to-day practices, as proof of a real break from the previous. He should present that he realizes this strike isn’t merely about cash; it’s about saving Boeing earlier than it’s too late.”

Manufacturing: “Airbus’ new aircraft is the reply to an getting old, inefficient Boeing jet that airways are scrambling to interchange” [Business Insider]. “Boeing’s closest competing possibility is its yet-to-be-certified 737 Max 10, which is shut in measurement however can’t fly as far. The planemaker has a possible “new midsize airplane” that would compete with the A321XLR, although that’s nonetheless lengthy away from chickening out. In August, United advised Enterprise Insider that its A321XLR fleet would exchange nearly all of its current 757 routes and permit it to journey to new locations, like France and North Africa.” • However the inventory buybacks!

Tech: “Democratising publishing” [John O’Nolan]. “What confuses folks most about all this, understandably, is that we’re a worthwhile non-profit organisation. Ghost earns over $7.5M per yr and is totally self-sufficient, with no outdoors funding of any form…. Folks usually suppose that “non-profit” signifies that the corporate can’t make a revenue. It truly signifies that the corporate doesn’t have any homeowners who can personally take the earnings. Any income earned can solely be reinvested. Non-profit buildings are notably properly suited to corporations that particularly wish to serve public neighborhood pursuits, like colleges, hospitals, native information orgs, and — sure — open supply initiatives.” • Hmm.

As we speak’s Concern & Greed Index: 60 Greed (earlier shut: 60 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 62 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 30 at 1:00:29 PM ET.

Gallery

Excessive key (apart from the person and the fireside, one if which, if I have been in Lightroom, I’d loosen up in order that they don’t merge):

Guillotine Watch

“What Sank the Bayesian Superyacht in Italy?” [New York Times]. “[T]he Bayesian was totally different. Its authentic purchaser — a Dutch businessman, not the Lynches — insisted on a single, hanging mast that will be taller than simply about every other mast on this planet, in line with the Italian yacht maker and three folks with detailed information of how this boat was constructed. That call resulted in main engineering penalties that finally left the boat considerably extra weak than many comparable superyachts, The Occasions investigation has discovered.” • The orginal purchaser’s “huge swinging dick,” in different phrases.

Information of the Wired

“The 1600s Have been a Watershed for Swear Phrases” [History Today]. Enjoyable, however since it is a household weblog, I can’t quote most of it. This caught my eye, being printable: “An early recorded use of the f-word was a chunk of marginalia by an nameless monk writing in 1528 in a manuscript copy of Cicero’s De officiis (a treatise on ethical philosophy). The inscription reads: ‘O d fuckin Abbot’.”

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JN writes: “Nonetheless Life: Part Transitions.”

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