Home Economics 2:00PM Water Cooler 11/22/2024 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 11/22/2024 | bare capitalism

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2:00PM Water Cooler 11/22/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chicken Tune of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Damon-Garcia Sports activities Area, San Luis Obispo, California, United States.

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In Case You May Miss…

  1. Trump border czar beats chest..
  2. Resistance 2.0 funders and NGOs
  3. Mathematical pondering .

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Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

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Trump Transition

“Trump Border Czar: If Sanctuary Cities Do Not Help, We Will Go Into The Neighborhood To Discover Legal Unlawful Immigrants” (transcript) [Laura Ingraham, RealClearPolitics]. “Incoming Trump “Border Czar” and former appearing director of ICE Tom Homan laid out his plan to deport unlawful immigrants in an interview with FOX Information host Laura Ingraham.” • Homan could certainly be an efficient administrator, however there’s nothing on this chest-beating interview to show it. Since “sanctuary cities” are an up to date model of Calhoun’s nullification doctrine, I oppose the idea. However I’m gonna should get my knee seen to, the best way Ingraham and Homan are pounding on it.

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The “chaos” speaking level, a hardy perennial:

“Trump’s day by day chaos circus is already again in full drive” [Aaron Rupar, Public Notice]. “Voters could have been prepared to threat all of it for barely decrease egg costs, however no matter what they thought they have been doing, they’re getting a chaos machine — and that kind of factor will get exhausting fairly rapidly.”

“Chaos reigns supreme in Trump’s Washington” [Axios]. “Trump has achieved historic political success by following his instincts — and his instincts are likely to favor most chaos…. If previous is prologue, the tempo of chaos is unlikely to relent even after Trump will get his Cupboard in place.”

Lambert right here: Possibly I didn’t get the memo, however is there something extra chaotic than risking World Warfare III by attempting to realize escalation dominance over a nuclear energy, in their very own again yard? And the way about genocide? Is genocide chaotic or no? Anyhow—

“Playbook: What Trump realized from Gaetz-gate” [Politico]. “[E]ven Trump has his limits on drama. For years, the traditional knowledge round Trump is that he has a candy tooth for chaos and that his urge for food is bottomless so long as he finally will get the end result he wishes. However Gaetz-gate means that when that chaos turns into a distraction — or worse in his eyes, when it makes him look unhealthy — he’s prepared to chop bait and head dwelling.” • And/or he’s listening to Susie Wiles.

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“‘I feel Elon could get annoyed pretty rapidly’” [Politico]. “‘I feel Elon could get annoyed pretty rapidly,’ Khanna stated on at this time’s POLITICO Tech podcast. ‘I imply, let’s see if he can get protection cuts. My guess is that there are going to be a whole lot of the individuals on that committee [who] are going to need much more protection spending. It’ll be a take a look at.’… Khanna represents a big swath of Silicon Valley and has identified Musk for years. In a latest change on X, Musk’s social media platform, the pair appeared to agree that the Protection Division was spending an excessive amount of cash on giant protection contractors. Khanna has beforehand voted in opposition to increasing the Pentagon’s finances.”

“Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene tapped to work with Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy as new DOGE subcommittee chair” [CNBC]. “Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., has been tapped to steer a brand new Home subcommittee that may work with the so-called Division of Authorities Effectivity led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy. Greene and Home Oversight Chairman James Comer, R-Ky., have met with Ramaswamy and his crew and are ‘already working collectively,’ an individual aware of the matter instructed CNBC on Thursday. Comer goals to determine the subpanel early subsequent 12 months, the supply stated. Greene’s group will likely be dubbed the Subcommittee on Delivering on Authorities Effectivity, permitting it to share the DOGE acronym with the outside-of-government entity commissioned by President-elect Donald Trump.” • MTG = Cowl in opposition to/self-discipline from the bottom?

2024 Publish Mortem

“Democrats Want Their Personal Donald Trump” [RealClearPolitics]. “Maybe the best indictment of Democrats’ competence is the rise of Donald Trump. After eight years of Barack Obama – an exemplar of well-polished progressivism – the American individuals elected a person with no authorities expertise, whose marketing campaign centered on the failures of the ruling elites of each events. Entrenched Republicans have been, in actual fact, as disdainful of Trump as Democrats have been. Then, regardless of titanic efforts to undercut and delegitimize him at each flip, this quintessential outsider led a largely profitable administration. Polls instructed he was more likely to be reelected earlier than the COVID-19 pandemic struck. Trump was returned to workplace earlier this month as a result of many People remembered the insurance policies of the person Democrats dismissed as a failed actual property developer and superficial actuality TV star as far simpler than these superior by his extremely credentialed opponents.” Extra: “All of which is to say, Democrats want their very own Trump – a wrecking ball who will problem the social gathering’s dogmas; a disruptive outsider who can drive them out of their ideological cul-de-sac. The unconventional transformation Democrats want appears past the capability of the social gathering’s entrenched management: To anticipate individuals who can not admit error to alter their minds and methods looks like wishful pondering. They most likely don’t want a Trump-like determine to win elections, however they want one to discover a approach to govern successfully.” • The hour has produced the person: Gavin Newsom.

“Column: The Trump landslide that wasn’t” [Los Angeles Times]. “However as extra of the favored vote is counted, it seems that Trump’s victory got here with the slimmest of margins — a couple of hundred thousand votes in key locations slid him into workplace. The Prepare dinner Political Report, thought-about to be the knowledgeable on these items, has Kamala Harris incomes 48.24% of the favored vote as of Wednesday, in contrast with 49.89% for Trump. That’s a distinction of about 2.5 million votes out of about 155 million counted…. [Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the USC Price School of Public Policy] factors out that Republicans additionally gained management of each homes of Congress, which supplies Trump a ‘trifecta, and its energy.’ However Republicans did it with about 31% of eligible voters going for Trump. About 30% went for Harris. Although voter turnout was robust, an alarming 36% of eligible voters didn’t hassle to forged a poll, she stated.” • A “landslide” election 2024 was not. Decisive, it was, a minimum of on the presidential degree. As of late, 49.89 – 48.24 = 1.65% is decisive. So is successful all seven swing states. So is successful each homes of Congress. Much more vital, the “coalition of the ascendant,” the identity-based technique Democrats have been utilizing since a minimum of 2008, lastly crashed and burned. Oh the intense facet for Democrats, a lot of their candidates ran forward of Harris, suggesting that the highest of the ticket was certainly problematic MR SUBLIMINAL No duh!. (On the non-Presidential degree, “progressive” causes did properly, and Democrats held on to all their governorships.)

“The Purple Wave Didn’t Hit Statehouses in This Election” [The Nation]. “Democrats’s state energy is shaping as much as be the strongest counterweight to the Trump administration. When Donald Trump was first elected in 2016, there have been simply 29 Democratic legislative majorities within the states, and solely six states had Democratic governing trifectas. That meant there have been solely so many alternatives for the states to rapidly or successfully counter the damaging results of MAGA federal coverage. This time round, Democrats are in a a lot stronger place. Because of a decade of creating investments and positive factors—together with our 2024 wins—Democrats will maintain almost 40 majorities in our statehouses and are able to fight the worst of the Trump presidency. We’ve additionally almost tripled our variety of governing trifectas to fifteen states, together with massive blue powerhouses like New York, California, and Illinois with giant populations and booming economies. Working example: California alone is the fifth-largest financial system on the earth. Which means . If Trump goes full steam forward on the various excessive and harmful guarantees made throughout the marketing campaign—together with Challenge 2025—Democrats in state legislatures are able to pump the brakes.” • And see under from the Washington Examiner on the “Governors Safeguarding Democracy” program.

Deploy the Blame Cannons!

“Throw the Teams Below the Bus!” [Ruy Teixeira, The Liberal Patriot]. “. The time, vitality and sources spent on the Democrats’ cultural left agenda is time, vitality, and sources taken away from selling the financial welfare of the working class. Working-class voters are properly conscious of this tradeoff, even when progressive activists and ‘the Teams‘ usually are not. In consequence, working-class voters have a tendency to attach their financial criticisms of the Democrats to the social gathering’s obvious preoccupation with cultural points pushed by their liberal college-educated supporters—points working class voters both don’t care about or are actively hostile to. This connection is clearly dragging the Democrats down with these voters.” Extra: “Democrats have misplaced the plot within the view of an increasing number of nonwhite, particularly nonwhite working-class, voters. How can they discover it once more? The plain reply could be to sever the social gathering’s connection to unpopular and unworkable social insurance policies and . The best approach to do that, in flip, could be to forcefully denounce stated insurance policies and unambiguously break from the forces within the social gathering which might be pushing these insurance policies—’the Teams’ and their allies that insist being a Democrat is inseparable from being a progressive as they outline it. However that is exhausting as a result of it entails battle and battle with the Teams is one thing Democrats have been decided to keep away from. That is silly, not least as a result of the idea upon which this deference was based mostly—that the Teams truly represented teams of voters—was incorrect.” • Oopsie.

“The Finish of Denial: How Trump’s rising reputation in New York (and all over the place else) uncovered the Democratic Occasion’s break with actuality” [New York Magazine]. “In fact, the MAGA devoted usually are not among the many metropolis’s upper-middle-class liberals in any significant approach. Neighborhoods like Park Slope are a number of the solely ones within the metropolis that remained darkish blue this cycle. It was as an alternative the areas of the town the place a number of the least rich and least white reside that broke hardest towards Trump. These neighborhoods, and the explanations they voted as they did, have been out of the sight view of most of the very individuals, right here within the nation’s media capital, who’ve tasked themselves with reporting on, understanding, and explaining American politics. This myopia displays a Democratic Occasion that in shedding contact with such locations is in peril of forgetting its cause for being.” • Not so. The Democrat Occasion is the social gathering of the PMC. That is its cause for being, and the social gathering has in no way forgotten that. (One other approach of claiming that is that the issues of the Democrat Occasion are the issues of the PMC itself, boiling all the way down to a failure to ship a humane, non-crapified baseline of providers in each system the place it handles governance, particularly healthcare, but in addition schooling, human sources, and so forth.).

The #Resistance

“Billionaire Musk foe bankrolls second Trump resistance” [Washington Examiner]. A maze of NGOs: “Pierre Omidyar, the founding father of eBay and a backer of progressive teams spearheading anti-Elon Musk campaigns, is behind a new initiative led by Democrats aiming to champion the second Trump resistance, information reveal. The initiative, referred to as Governors Safeguarding Democracy, was profiled within the New York Instances final week as a newly-formed automobile for Govs. J.B. Pritzker (D-IL), Jared Polis (D-CO), and different governors to ‘shield the rule of regulation’ in states and push again on the insurance policies of President-elect Donald Trump. On its web site, GSD calls itself a “nonpartisan alliance” of leaders, although it’s unclear what Republican officers, if any, are concerned with the group. However, in accordance with nonprofit donation software program information, GSD shouldn’t be technically a stand-alone group. Relatively, the Trump resistance operation is underneath the umbrella of a Governors Motion Alliance challenge sponsored by World Influence, a Virginia-based charity. In September, Omidyar’s Democracy Fund, a non-public basis steering the left-wing billionaire’s fortune, routed $500,000 to the Governors Motion Alliance to help ‘coordinating and strengthening the work of governors to handle particular threats to American democracy,’ Democracy Fund’s grants database reveals. Omidyar’s ties to the Trump resistance group, which operates underneath its mother or father umbrella alongside an effort referred to as the Reproductive Freedom Alliance, is a window into how billionaire progressives are ramping up campaigns to fight speculated GOP plans on abortion, immigration, and different situation areas. Democrats are enlisting high-powered attorneys, whereas , the New York Instances additionally reported.” And: “Omidyar’s group routed $750,000 in April to a challenge referred to as Free Election Fund, which is related to Marc Elias, the Democratic superlawyer who pushed the discredited Steele File aiming to hyperlink Trump to Russia falsely in 2016… The Free Election Fund was referred to as the Democracy Docket Authorized Fund. It’s housed underneath the Hopewell Fund, a gaggle managed by an influential Democratic-aligned consulting agency referred to as Arabella Advisors. In 2020, Omidyar’s Democracy Fund additionally granted $1.5 million to the Elias-linked authorized group ‘to detect and fight suppressive voting legal guidelines and practices by means of litigation,’ information present. GSD, the group co-chaired by Pritzker and Polis, says on its web site that it’s going to ‘.’ The group can even intention ‘to guard govt companies, elections, state courts, and different core democratic our bodies,’ GSD provides on its web site.” • Oh, playbooks [musical interlude]. That is the Instances article cited by the Examiner–

“Democrats Draw Up an Totally New Anti-Trump Battle Plan” [New York Times]. “Democratic officers, activists and bold politicians are searching for to construct their second wave of opposition to Mr. Trump from the locations that they nonetheless management: deep-blue states…. A number of the planning in blue states started in 2023 as a possible backstop if Mr. Trump gained, in accordance with a number of Democrats concerned in numerous efforts. .” Gad. Extra: “The Democratic effort will depend on the work of a whole lot of attorneys, who’re being recruited to fight Trump administration insurance policies on a spread of Democratic priorities. Already, advocacy teams have begun workshopping circumstances and recruiting potential plaintiffs to problem anticipated rules, legal guidelines and administrative actions beginning on Day 1.” However: “A number of the first maneuvering by prime Democrats started this previous week, when Mr. Pritzker and Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado introduced the formation of a gaggle referred to as Governors Safeguarding Democracy. Its unveiling adopted a number of days of behind-the-scenes drama, as a number of fellow Democratic governors declined to affix the group, a minimum of for now. A draft information launch listed six different governors as members of the coalition led by Mr. Pritzker and Mr. Polis. However 4 of them — Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Maura Healey of Massachusetts, Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico and Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania — declined to affix, in accordance with individuals briefed on the discussions. Govs. Tony Evers of Wisconsin and Josh Inexperienced of Hawaii have been additionally named on the draft information launch, however neither has but agreed to affix the group. Alex Gough, a spokesman for Mr. Pritzker, stated that the group had been working with 20 governors’ workplaces however that ‘not all of those governors want to be named publicly presently for comprehensible causes, together with the potential threats states are going through.’” • Or possibly the reluctant governors don’t wish to signal on to Pritzker 2028?

“Bury the #Resistance, As soon as and For All” [The Nation]. “In late September, I warned in regards to the reemergence inside the Democratic coalition of the failed #Resistance mindset that outlined the 2016 election and the response to Donald Trump’s first time period. Amongst that motion’s defining options have been attempting to disgrace or scare voters into voting in opposition to Trump, relatively than for the Democrat, an over-reliance on popular culture signifiers relatively than coverage, and a hope and a prayer for the system, particularly prosecutors and the FBI, to ship us from evil…. Relatively than interact in significant self-reflection, although, many prime Democrats are on the lookout for somebody apart from social gathering management and their very own candidate accountable. Similar to after Clinton’s 2016 loss, they’re touchdown on the progressive wing of the social gathering and voters from marginalized teams.” • Certainly one wants to incorporate financing in a listing of “defining options”? As above?

Spook Nation

“DOJ Apparatchiks Advised to Lawyer Up and Flee the Nation. Why?” [Declassified with Julie Kelly]. “The resume-burnishing seems to increase to most important Justice, the Federal Bureau of Investigations (housed underneath the DOJ), and the U.S. Legal professional for the District of Columbia workplace, which oversees the federal government’s ongoing prosecution of January 6 protesters. Nameless ‘sedition hunters’ who’ve aided the FBI in focusing on and figuring out a whole lot of J6ers deleted their social media accounts over the weekend for worry of reprisal; the FBI reportedly paid the ‘sedition hunters’ as FBI informants to assist their pursuit of Trump supporters.” Good precedent there. Extra: “Mark Zaid, an legal professional who represented self-described Ukrainian ‘whistleblower’ Eric Ciaramella, prompting the primary impeachment of Trump in 2019, simply instructed each CNN and Politico journal that authorities officers apprehensive they are going to be pursued by a Trump DOJ or Republican Congress ought to journey ‘exterior of the nation’ proper round Inauguration Day.” And: “However why would anybody else depart the nation round Inauguration Day? To attend and see if Trump indicators an govt order authorizing an investigation of all the pieces from the Russian collusion hoax and the Ukrainian impeachment operation to the coverup of the Biden household corruption ring? To attend and see if the appearing legal professional basic appoints a particular counsel to analyze Smith’s crew in addition to the occasions of January 6? And therein lies the justified panic inside the DOJ and nationwide safety state. The bottom is fertile for a number of investigations with respectable felony legal responsibility for prime officers together with Smith, FBI Director Christopher Wray, and DC US Legal professional Matthew Graves along with line prosecutors and investigators.”

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

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Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (wastewater); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, KidDoc, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Morbidity and Mortality

“Oil and fuel properly proximity linked to increased charges of COVID-19 mortality” [Phys.org]. “However a brand new examine by Timothy Archer and colleagues is the primary, to the authors’ data, to check whether or not proximity particularly to grease and fuel growth may be linked to increased charges of COVID-19. The researchers studied COVID-19 case and dying charges throughout the first 12 months of the pandemic (February 2020 to January 2021), specializing in California communities situated inside 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) of energetic oil and fuel wells. Along with COVID-19 case information, the researchers…. In communities inside 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) of an actively producing properly, COVID-19 circumstances have been 34% increased and mortality charges have been 55% increased within the first 4 months of the pandemic. Although the outcomes didn’t present a major affiliation between properly manufacturing and COVID-19 circumstances over your entire 12 months, mortality charges have been increased within the areas with the very best manufacturing.” • Hmm.

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TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts

Wastewater
This week[1] CDC November 11 Final Week[2] CDC (till subsequent week):

Variants [3] CDC November 23 Emergency Room Visits[4] CDC November 9

Hospitalization
New York[5] New York State, information November 21: Nationwide [6] CDC November 21:

Positivity
Nationwide[7] Walgreens November 18: Ohio[8] Cleveland Clinic November 16:

Vacationers Knowledge
Positivity[9] CDC October 28: Variants[10] CDC October 28:

Deaths
Weekly Deaths vs. % Positivity [11] CDC November 2: Weekly Deaths vs. ED Visits [12] CDC November 2:

LEGEND

1) for charts new at this time; all others usually are not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”

NOTES

[1] (CDC) Excellent news!

[2] (CDC) Final week’s wastewater map.

[3] (CDC Variants) KP.* nonetheless common. XEC has entered the chat. That WHO label, “Ommicron,” has finished a terrific job normalizing successive waves of an infection.

[4] (ED) Down.

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Steadily down.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). Truly improved; it’s now one of many few charts to indicate your entire course of the pandemic to the current day.

[7] (Walgreens) Down.

[8] (Cleveland) Down.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Down.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants). Now XEC.

[11] Deaths low, positivity down.

[12] Deaths low, ED down.

Stats Watch

There are not any official statistics of curiosity at this time.

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Manufacturing: “FAA eyes new Boeing 737 MAX pilot directions after smoke emergencies” [Seattle Times]. “The Federal Aviation Administration is weighing whether or not to require all pilots of 737 MAX plane to take off with the air move from the principle engines into the plane’s inside turned off — to keep away from a threat of smoke flooding the aircraft if one of many engines hits a chicken. Such a change in takeoff process for pilots could be non permanent till Boeing comes up with a everlasting repair. Devising that would additional delay certification of the Renton-built MAX 7 and MAX 10 fashions. The FAA stated in an announcement Thursday that it ‘will convene a Corrective Motion Evaluation Board within the coming weeks to look at the info and develop a path ahead’ and assess the choices to forestall the chance of smoke getting into the cockpit or passenger cabin. Within the meantime, the FAA stated that as a result of pilots have been alerted to the process they need to observe if smoke enters the aircraft, ‘this isn’t a right away flight-safety situation.’ The proposed FAA motion is a response to the protection threat uncovered by two severe incidents on Southwest Airways MAXs final 12 months. In these two incidents, a chicken collided with an engine throughout takeoff and the harm triggered an oil leak. The oil ignited within the scorching engine, sending heavy smoke and fumes into the inside of the airplane. Airflow off an plane’s engines — often called “bleed air” — is often directed to the airplane inside and handed by means of air-con packs to regulate the air stress and temperature inside.” • Nonetheless nothing from Gates or the Seattle Instances on Ortberg’s “cease bitching” pep speak. Odd!

Manufacturing: “Boeing inks contracts price greater than $4B for KC-46s, P-8s” [Breaking Defense]. “The Pentagon this week awarded Boeing a pair of separate contracts for 15 KC-46A Pegasus tankers and 7 P-8A Poseidon maritime surveillance plane, offers which might be collectively price greater than $4 billion. Though each contracts had been anticipated underneath current plans, getting the offers signed is sweet information for Boeing, whose protection arm logged $2 billion in losses for its final fiscal quarter and which is going through company-wide layoffs…. ‘This $1.67 billion contract for seven further P-8A Poseidons not solely reinforces the U.S. Navy’s dedication to sustaining a strong maritime presence but in addition highlights Boeing’s dedication to delivering secure, dependable platforms that improve the Navy’s operational capabilities, readiness and effectiveness,’ [said] Tory Peterson, vice chairman and P-8 program supervisor at Boeing.” • “Undefinitized”? Is {that a} phrase?

The Bezzle: “An ideal storm is brewing for Bitcoin” [CoinTelegraph]. “Bitcoin is the world’s most reflexive asset at this time. The USA Securities and Trade Fee lately authorized choices for a number of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). As soon as issued, these choices result in gamma squeezes, appearing like reflexivity. Collectively, that’s reflexivity squared, resulting in unprecedented value actions…. Monetary markets are deeply influenced by human conduct. George Soros famously coined the idea of “reflexivity” to explain the round relationship between notion and actuality in monetary markets. Bitcoin exemplifies this idea greater than some other asset: As its value rises, the asset garners growing consideration, which results in additional funding, driving costs even increased. Outstanding traders resembling Jamie Dimon and Warren Buffett have criticized Bitcoin due to its reflexive nature. They’ve argued that it lacks intrinsic worth as a result of its value appears to maneuver based mostly on notion. However that’s exactly the purpose: Bitcoin is essentially the most reflexive asset as a result of its provide is genuinely finite, extra finite than valuable metals or top-performing equities. The shortage of Bitcoin is what makes it basically worthwhile.”

Tech: “‘A spot of pleasure’: why scientists are becoming a member of the push to Bluesky” [Nature]. “Within the two weeks for the reason that US presidential election, the platform has grown from near 14 million customers to almost 21 million. Bluesky has broad attraction largely as a result of it appears to be like and feels rather a lot like X (previously often called Twitter), which turned vastly common with scientists, who used it to share analysis findings, collaborate and community. One estimate means that a minimum of half 1,000,000 researchers had Twitter profiles in 2022…. Daryll Carlson, a bioacoustics researcher on the College of New Hampshire in Durham, says she seen the most important inflow of customers on Bluesky after the US election. Musk has turn into intently aligned to president-elect Donald Trump. For Carlson, Bluesky affords an area to have interaction with different scientists, in addition to artists, photographers and most of the people. ‘I’d actually prefer it to proceed to be a spot of pleasure for me,’ she says.” • Similar to the Kamala marketing campaign…

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As we speak’s Worry & Greed Index: 61 Greed (earlier shut: 57 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 51 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Nov 22 at 1:12:19 PM ET.

Permaculture

“The World’s Oldest Forest Is Right here within the Hudson Valley” [Hudson Valley]. “On the ground of an deserted quarry in Cairo, in Greene County, researchers have discovered the earliest tree fossils but found wherever on the earth. Relationship again roughly 387 million years, the discover has completely rewritten the story of the origins of bushes. One researcher referred to as the invention nothing lower than ‘mindblowing.’… After starting research within the area in 1993, the collective made important inroads in 2007 and 2008 after they realized to acknowledge the bases of two forms of fossil bushes. Based on [Christopher] Berry, one is the big rooting system of the Archaeopteris tree, whereas the opposite is the dish-like imprint of the Cladoxylopsid tree, which accommodates a whole lot of radiating roots… It’s no exaggeration to say that this is likely one of the most vital issues that has occurred within the historical past of the world. These early bushes absorbed carbon dioxide from the ambiance, which led to a speedy cooling favorable to extra sophisticated types of animal life. The shade supplied by the broad, flat leaves of taller bushes protected critters on the bottom from the solar, and the roots restricted soil erosion. ‘The arrival of those forests was the creation of the fashionable world,’ Berry instructed Smithsonian Journal.” And: “Finally, the stays of these early crops and bushes, compacted over a whole lot of hundreds of thousands of years, turned the coal deposits that fueled the Industrial Revolution, returning the carbon they’d absorbed into the ambiance, thereby triggering the current age of world warming.” • Oh. Anyhow, right here’s an image of a fossilized root system:

“Salmon return to put eggs in historic habitat after largest dam removing challenge in US historical past” [Oregon Public Broadcasting]. “An enormous feminine Chinook salmon flips on her facet within the shallow water and wriggles wildly, utilizing her tail to carve out a nest within the riverbed as her physique glistens within the daylight. In one other second, males butt into one another as they jockey for a superb place to fertilize eggs. These are scenes native tribes have dreamed of seeing for many years as they fought to convey down 4 hydroelectric dams blocking passage for struggling salmon alongside greater than 400 miles (644 kilometers) of the Klamath River and its tributaries alongside the Oregon-California border. Now, lower than a month after these dams got here down within the largest dam removing challenge in U.S. historical past, salmon are as soon as extra returning to spawn in cool creeks which were reduce off to them for generations.” • Lower than a month!!

Gallery

“Man who spent $6.2 million on banana duct-taped to wall says he’s going to eat it” [NBC]. Grocery inflation simply hit its peak after a single banana was offered for $6.2 million Wednesday. Cryptocurrency entrepreneur Justin Solar dropped over $6 million on the piece of produce — as a result of it was duct-taped to a wall. The banana is a part of a chunk of art work referred to as Comic, created by the Italian artist and satirist Maurizio Cattelan. ‘Within the coming days, I’ll personally eat the banana as a part of this distinctive creative expertise, honoring its place in each artwork historical past and common tradition,’ he stated. Solar’s snacking gained’t change the worth of his funding, nevertheless. His $6.2 million buy awarded him a roll of duct tape, directions on how you can ‘set up’ the banana correctly and, most significantly, a certificates of authenticity guaranteeing the art work, when reproduced by Solar, as an unique work of Cattelan’s, CNBC reported. The soon-to-be devoured banana wasn’t included in his winnings, because the fruit tends to rot rapidly. However the worth of the art work isn’t within the banana itself — it’s derived from the certificates accompanying the acquisition.” • I’m undecided this enterprise scales.

Information of the Wired

“Mathematical Pondering Isn’t What You Suppose It Is” [Quanta]. “Based on [mathematician David Bessis], the best way math is taught at school emphasizes the logic-based a part of this course of, when the extra vital factor is instinct. Math must be considered a dialogue between the 2: between cause and intuition, between language and abstraction. It’s additionally a bodily observe of types, like yoga or martial arts — one thing that may be improved by means of coaching. It requires tapping right into a childlike state and embracing one’s creativeness, together with the errors that include it.” BESSIS: “If you do math, you’re uncovered to the human thought course of in a approach that’s actually pure. It’s not nearly understanding issues, however about understanding issues in a really infantile, deep, naïve, tremendous clear, apparent approach. It’s superb coaching for creativity. It’s a scaffold in your creativeness.” • Bessis is French, and the article is accompanied by pictures of Paris (and Bessis) which might be so Parisian I wish to discover an artwork home cinema and begin watching Truffaut films. And begin smoking cigarettes.

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Contact info for crops: Readers, be happy to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me pictures of crops. Greens are fantastic! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it in the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “I made a decision to strive opening this e mail account on my dying laptop since I used to be in a position to make use of it’s Picasa on some pictures, and what have you learnt? As we speak it’s working. That is Thunbergia rising in a beautiful backyard on Naples Island in Lengthy Seashore (CA).”

Type readers, we’re nearly there with plant pictures. Thanks! However one factor: I’m largely seeing handles or e mail addresses that I already know. If you happen to haven’t despatched in a plant picture to Water Cooler, why not strive it? It’s simple, it’s enjoyable, and also you get some good compliments! (If you happen to want instructions, see under.)

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism web site. If you happen to see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

If you happen to hate PayPal, you may e mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on how you can ship a verify. Thanks!

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About Lambert Strether

Readers, I’ve had a correspondent characterize my views as real looking cynical. Let me briefly clarify them. I consider in common applications that present concrete materials advantages, particularly to the working class. Medicare for All is the prime instance, however tuition-free school and a Publish Workplace Financial institution additionally fall underneath this heading. So do a Jobs Assure and a Debt Jubilee. Clearly, neither liberal Democrats nor conservative Republicans can ship on such applications, as a result of the 2 are completely different flavors of neoliberalism (“As a result of markets”). I don’t a lot care in regards to the “ism” that delivers the advantages, though whichever one does should put frequent humanity first, versus markets. Might be a second FDR saving capitalism, democratic socialism leashing and collaring it, or communism razing it. I don’t a lot care, so long as the advantages are delivered.

To me, the important thing situation — and for this reason Medicare for All is at all times first with me — is the tens of 1000’s of extra “deaths from despair,” as described by the Case-Deaton examine, and different latest research. That big physique rely makes Medicare for All, on the very least, an ethical and strategic crucial. And that degree of struggling and natural harm makes the issues of identification politics — even the worthy battle to assist the refugees Bush, Obama, and Clinton’s wars created — shiny shiny objects by comparability. Therefore my frustration with the information move — presently in my opinion the swirling intersection of two, separate Shock Doctrine campaigns, one by the Administration, and the opposite by out-of-power liberals and their allies within the State and within the press — a information move that consistently forces me to give attention to issues that I regard as of secondary significance to the surplus deaths. What sort of political financial system is it that halts and even reverses the will increase in life expectancy that civilized societies have achieved? I’m additionally very hopeful that the persevering with destruction of each social gathering institutions will open the area for voices supporting applications much like these I’ve listed; let’s name such voices “the left.” Volatility creates alternative, particularly if the Democrat institution, which places markets first and opposes all such applications, isn’t allowed to get again into the saddle. Eyes on the prize! I really like the tactical degree, and secretly love even the horse race, since I’ve been running a blog about it day by day for fourteen years, however all the pieces I write has this attitude in the back of it.