By Lambert Strether of Corrente

There will likely be lots extra concerning the thrilling occasions within the Democrat Social gathering. –lambert

Chicken Track of the Day

Northern Mockingbird, Rocky Rill Farm; Farmyard, Whitfield, Georgia, United States. A reader requested for mockingbirds; right here’s six minutes-worth!

In Case You May Miss…

(1) Many new Covid charts, emergency division visits being particularly disconcerting.

(2) Biden’s defenestration.

(3) Harris: Let the oppo start!

(4) What if we cease studying?

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than 4 months to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

Virginia and North Carolina added to the record. NC was by no means going for Biden, however Virginia? Yikes!

* * *

Unelecting Biden:

Occasions, pricey boy, occasions.” —Harold MacMillan (apocryphal)

Affected person readers: “Occasions” are transferring too quick for me to rise above them with generalizations, and subsequently I’m going to throw my well timed gleanings into buckets with which you’re already acquainted. Nevertheless it’s price noting that our affected person examination of occasions has yielded not less than two outcomes: The time period “circle“*, and the concept of the “Internal Social gathering,” which is a FlexNet (stigmatized right here because the “Wretched Hive” of scum and villainy). Neither kind of entity, you should have seen, is small-d “democratic” to the slightest diploma. I’m nonetheless lengthy volatility. NOTE * We will now ask, for instance, what Kamala’s circle is, and the way it differs from Biden’s.

* * *

Covid

“White Home lifting its COVID-19 testing rule for individuals round Biden” [PBS]. March 4, 2024: “The White Home on Monday lifted its COVID-19 testing requirement for individuals who plan to be in shut contact with President Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris and their spouses, bringing to an finish the final coronavirus prevention protocol on the White Home. The White Home stated the change aligns its insurance policies with the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention steerage.” • Life’s little ironies, eh? You additionally must marvel who many individuals Biden contaminated:

we’re in a surge and also you actually have Covid proper now and aren’t masking or contact tracing.

You let a whole bunch of 1000’s of individuals die and nonetheless have by no means tweeted the phrase Lengthy Covid, although hundreds of thousands have it.

You don’t get to fake you succeeded at Covid. https://t.co/m3XWZHKQO7

— Mr. Madam Adam (@MisterMadamAdam) July 20, 2024

As NC readers know, when Biden says Trump “informed us to inject bleach” he’s mendacity.

Biden Circle

Related narratives:

“Why Biden lastly give up” [Politico]. Identical narrative as beneath. “Early Saturday, Biden informed senior aides it was “full steam forward” for the marketing campaign. However by later that night, he had modified his thoughts following an extended dialogue along with his two closest aides [Steve Ricchetti and Mike Donilon]…. [T]hey carried the marketing campaign’s personal polls, which got here again this week and confirmed his path to victory in November was gone, in line with 5 individuals conversant in the matter…. [What? This year?], in line with two individuals conversant in the surveys. And the numbers have been grim, displaying Biden not simply trailing in all six important swing states however collapsing in locations like Virginia and New Mexico the place Democrats had not deliberate on needing to spend huge sources to win.” • I’m slightly amazed that Swing State polling may come as a shock to a marketing campaign with a reliable workers. Then once more. that is the workers that uncovered Biden to Covid (and allowed him to reveal others). Makes you marvel if Biden’s the one one with cognitive points (see “Private Danger Evaluation” within the Covid part).

“Inside Biden’s unprecedented exit from the presidential race” [CNN]. “Biden’s ultimate resolution to go away the race was reached within the final 48 hours, a senior marketing campaign adviser stated, as he consulted household and prime advisers by phone whereas recovering from Covid. A supply conversant in the matter stated the plans to exit the race started Saturday night time and have been finalized Sunday. The adviser stated the president ‘was not dug in’ however was finding out the info coming in and have become satisfied he would ‘crush’ the ticket and be a complication to defeating Trump. Biden’s resolution didn’t must do with any medical points, a senior White Home official informed CNN.” We at the moment are revising the narrative to remove each Covid and Biden’s cognitive difficulties. “It was the polling!” And certainly, that was a part of the image, however not all of it. Extra: “When Biden huddled along with his two closest advisers Saturday, the data they supplied on polling and the place prime Democratic officers stood underscored {that a} path to victory was ‘principally nonexistent,’ in line with one other particular person conversant in the matter. There wasn’t any single ballot quantity, wavering Democratic official or fundraiser offered within the assembly with longtime aides Mike Donilon and Steve Ricchetti that pushed Biden towards his resolution, the particular person stated. As a substitute, the data highlighted that the trail again to a viable marketing campaign had been severely broken by declining nationwide and swing-state ballot numbers, together with occasion defections that have been more likely to quickly speed up. The data included polling and particulars gathered from outreach exterior Biden’s internal circle.” • However see the idea of “buzz“; generally the spontaneous will get slightly assist.

“Inside Biden’s historic resolution to drop out of the 2024 race” [NBC]. “The account of this important weekend, and what led to Biden’s beautiful announcement, got here from interviews with two dozen Democrats conversant in what transpired…. In separate cellphone calls Sunday, Biden informed his vice chairman, Kamala Harris, his White Home chief of workers, Jeff Zients, and his marketing campaign chair, Jen O’Malley Dillon, that he would abandon his re-election bid. The truth that he needed to inform them in such a way underscored the diploma to which his circle had tightened in latest days to members of the family and some longtime aides and advisers — Mike Donilon, Steve Ricchetti, Anthony Bernal and Annie Tomasini. The result might not have shocked White Home and marketing campaign officers, however the timing did. Most came upon, together with the remainder of the world, when Biden revealed his put up on X. The identical was true for Democratic Nationwide Committee officers and state occasion chairs. Senior Biden aides scrambled to arrange separate conferences to speak to workers members for the White Home and the marketing campaign, reassuring the political aides that their jobs have been protected.” • The workers finds out from X. Good!

“Biden drops out of 2024 race after disastrous debate infected age issues. VP Harris will get his nod” [Associated Press]. “Harris, in an announcement, praised Biden’s ‘selfless and patriotic act’ and stated she intends to ‘earn and win’ her occasion’s nomination.” • That would definitely be a primary for her.

The Internal Social gathering

“It was not undemocratic for the Democrats to dump Joe Biden” [VOX]. “What’s unfolded within the two weeks since has been a steadily intensifying stress marketing campaign from numerous members of the press, pundits, donors, and present and former elected officers aimed toward making Biden give up. A few of these entreaties have been made in personal — and, when Biden didn’t seem like listening, extra spilled out [note lack of agency] into public view. They argued that he couldn’t win and, finally, he listened. There might arguably be one thing a bit uncomfortable concerning the function of Democratic energy brokers and donors in pushing Biden apart after his main win. However whereas they’re doing this with out voters’ specific say, they’re doing so in an try to (belatedly) reply to voters’ beliefs that Biden is just too outdated to serve one other time period.” • I’m not certain of the timing on this. First, that “(belatedly”) is doing extra work than a mere adverb ought to ever be referred to as upon to do; these are all occasion professionals, how on earth did the issue sneak by them? Second, the Democrats have now managed to position a candidate on the highest of the ticket who has by no means received a single Presidential main in her life; that is outstanding, however how can it probably be characterised as “democratic”? The one time Harris confronted the voters, they rejected her! In her dwelling state! And right here we’re. Third, contemplating how the Internal Social gathering nobbled Sanders in 2016 and 2020, I’d say they’ve type, and the Social gathering can’t be pretty characterised as democratic in any respect. Lastly, placing on my tinfoil hat, the particular mannequin that works from 30,000 ft, this complete operation has the stench of a bait and swap. How far again did the planning go?

The DNC

“Changing Biden: What occurs now?” [Semafor]. “Solely Harris, whose identify is on the marketing campaign’s organizing paperwork, would inherit the present Biden marketing campaign and its sources. If the delegates rejected her, the Biden-Harris struggle chest might be donated to the DNC or an excellent PAC.”

“What’s subsequent for Democrats, delegates to interchange Biden on the ticket” [Axios]. “There isn’t a formal rule-based construction that transfers delegates from one candidate to a different forward of the Democratic Nationwide Conference, which begins Aug. 19. The Democratic Nationwide Conference’s guidelines committee will maintain a gathering to focus on implementing a framework to pick a presidential nominee in a gathering to be broadcast stay on the DNC’s YouTube web page from 2pm Wednesday ET, per a number of stories. Whereas Harris might be within the finest place to change into the Democratic nominee within the view of occasion officers and strategists, it’s not assured. That’s partially as a result of Biden didn’t resign from the presidency, which might have made Harris the primary girl president of the U.S. and vaulted her to the highest of the ticket. ‘We’re simply in uncharted territory right here and lots of these items hasn’t been examined, definitely not within the fashionable period of presidential nomination,; Josh Putnam, a political advisor specializing in delegate choice guidelines and presidential campaigns, informed Axios.”

Electeds

“Some key battleground Dems conspicuously quiet about Kamala Harris on Sunday” [Politico]. “Many of the Democratic challengers working for aggressive seats throughout the nation had obtrusive omissions of their statements Sunday about President Joe Biden bowing out of the race. They didn’t point out Vice President Kamala Harris. It was an eyebrow-raising distinction to the handfuls of Home and Senate Democratic incumbents who instantly got here out in assist of Harris as their occasion’s nominee. And it was much more noticeable within the blue states of New York and California, which maintain a slew of districts the place voters selected Biden in 2020 however have supported GOP candidates down the poll since. A flood of assist for Harris may nonetheless come, and few Democrats referred to as for a contested conference or backed every other candidate. However as their safe-seat counterparts put out statements Sunday, swing-seat Democrats confronted a more durable calculus. A few of them, like Sens. Bob Casey (D-Pa.) and Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) and Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.), obtained to sure on Harris. Others, particularly challengers to Republican incumbents, stayed silent.

Their hesitation speaks to the politically murky scenario as Harris coalesces assist.” • Hmm.

Clyburn endorses Harris:

My assertion on President Biden. pic.twitter.com/xEq1tsQhAl

— Jim Clyburn (@ClyburnSC06) July 21, 2024

Donors

“How the Guess on an 81-12 months-Outdated Joe Biden Turned Into an Epic Miscalculation” [Wall Street Journal]. An extended catalog of incidents. That is the primary one: “President Biden had simply completed attempting to steer a gaggle of congressional Democrats to go a $1 trillion infrastructure invoice when Nancy Pelosi, then the Home speaker, took the microphone. In half-hour of remarks on Capitol Hill, Biden had spoken disjointedly and didn’t make a concrete ask of lawmakers, in line with Democrats within the room. After he left, a visibly annoyed Pelosi informed the group she would articulate what Biden had been attempting to say, one lawmaker stated. ‘It was the primary time I keep in mind individuals fairly jarred by what that they had seen,’ recalled Rep. Dean Phillips (D., Minn.), who would go on to mount an unsuccessful main problem in opposition to the president. That was . That month was the final time Biden met with the Home Democratic caucus on the Hill relating to laws.” • I keep in mind posting about Biden being helped down an especially brief flight of steos by a staffer, after which being pointed in the fitting route within the Iowa main, 2019. I’ve no persistence with the “We have been lied to!” crowd. Anyone who says that wasn’t doing due diligence, and it received’t be the primary time NC readers knew greater than squillionaire donors. One donor: “One longtime donor recalled that on the final three events he noticed the president, Biden had repeatedly misplaced his prepare of thought and interrupted his sentence with ‘no matter.’ The donor didn’t suppose a lot of it on the time. ‘I used to be most likely rationalizing,’ he stated. ‘Subconsciously, you’re like—OK, I don’t suppose I can cope with this actuality. What selection do I’ve? No one else is working.’” After all, one other takeaway is {that a} moderately heuristic for coping with any Democrat operative is that they’re mendacity, however then you definitely knew that. Why within the identify of all that’s holy didn’t the donrs?

The Spooks

Lambert right here: The spooks are silent. Kamala was on the Senate Intelligence Committee. What does that inform you?

The Press

“Editorial: Biden’s resolution to not search nomination was brave” [Los Angeles Times]. “In asserting Sunday that he’s abandoning his candidacy for reelection, President Biden admirably put his occasion and the nation above his private pursuits. That he was responding to an growing refrain from throughout the occasion doesn’t make his resolution any much less statesmanlike. His willingness to step apart, and the respectful requires him to take action from different Democrats, quantity to a hanging distinction to the Republican Social gathering, which has a cult-like deal with the supposed indispensability of Donald Trump.” • Crap Materials like that is throughout my Twitter feed like kudzu. Everyone who caught a shiv in Biden’s again is now professing admiration for him in essentially the most fulsome phrases. All of them turned on a dime! Collectively! First, if certainly it was “time to remove the automobile keys” from Biden, it’s not clear that his resolution was “brave” in any respect, as a result of we will’t make certain of his psychological capability. Second, observe the distinction between Democrats and Republicans: Biden’s defenestration by Democrats brave resolution was totally a case of the Internal Social gathering placing stress on his circle by leaks within the press; completely prime down. In contrast, say what you want about Trump, however his ascendancy within the Republican occasion was backside up, i.e. small-d democratic. Republican voters weren’t having Jeb!, or Haley, or any RINO, and so they saved banging on their occasion equipment till it did (of their phrases) the fitting factor.

“With Biden stepping apart, Democrats should now embrace an open course of” [WaPo]. “An open course of for selecting Mr. Biden’s substitute as Democratic nominee, in addition to that particular person’s working mate, dangers changing into messy. It may draw consideration to Democratic quarrels over points that divide Democrats reminiscent of Mr. Biden’s coverage within the Center East. The Democratic conference was already shaping as much as be contentious earlier than Mr. Biden’s exit, with the potential for massive protests exterior the venue. But Mr. Biden’s resolution creates a chance for a reset, not just for his occasion but in addition for U.S. politics typically, by way of a aggressive nomination course of amongst future nationwide leaders. Barack Obama was a stronger candidate in 2008, and perhaps even a greater president, as a result of Hillary Clinton competed so fiercely with him throughout a marathon main season. Although this form of vetting course of isn’t replicable, there may be time for Democrats to scrutinize the contenders for prime of the ticket. The logistics of a compressed nominating contest wouldn’t essentially be onerous. France simply held snap elections with no hitch. All of the delegates and superdelegates are already chosen and set to convene in Chicago. Democrats wouldn’t even must schedule primaries: Debates among the many prime contenders would do.”

The Marketing campaign Path:

* * *

Harris (D): From the archives:

Am I the one one who remembers the time Kamala Harris’s father upbraided her in public? pic.twitter.com/JuBY6a263v

— Alice (@AliceFromQueens) July 22, 2024

I definitely do. And so it begins–

Harris (D): “Scandal behind the cackle! As Kamala’s former lover – who’s 31 YEARS her senior – calls for Biden make her president NOW… all of the sordid secrets and techniques America’s ‘Momala’ hopes you’ve forgotten” [Daily Mail]. I wouldn’t count on this to be sluggish in crossing The Pond. “In 1994, Harris was a 29-year-old rising star within the Alameda County District Legal professional’s Workplace when she struck up a relationship with Brown – the 60-year-old speaker of the state Meeting and one of the vital highly effective males in California…. In a 2019 op-ed for the San Francisco Chronicle, [Brown] wrote: ‘Positive, I dated Kamala Harris. So what?’ conceding that he ‘definitely helped along with her first race for district legal professional in San Francisco,’ however that he additionally assisted different outstanding California Democrats.” Weak oppo. The important thing level (from WikiPedia (!)): “In 1994, Speaker of the California Meeting Willie Brown, who was then courting Harris, appointed her to the state Unemployment Insurance coverage Appeals Board and later to the California Medical Help Fee.” It’s one factor to have a girlfiend; it’s fairly one other to rearrange for her to be take a State wage. And apparently, Willie Brown continues to be at it: “Talking exterior John’s Grill, the place he holds court docket with the town’s political elite, simply moments after President Joe Biden’s shock announcement that he’d instantly suspended his marketing campaign, Brown put ahead a daring concept. “Not solely ought to Joe stand apart as a candidate, he stated, however Biden must also resign as President, permitting Harris to take up the function. ‘[Harris’s] probabilities go up if [Biden] would at this second say not solely am I not the candidate, I’m not the president — she is,’ Brown stated. Sounding extra like a doting instructor than a previous lover, he heaped reward on Harris, telling The San Francisco Chronicle: ‘In all the roles she’s had… she’s all the time been excellent.’ It’s a pointy change of tune from Brown, who suggested Harris in 2020 to show down Biden’s invitation to be his working mate, telling her the second seat was a ‘useless finish’. Brown’s about-face is according to a basic shift within the Democratic occasion – as left-wing [sic] political operators and a sympathetic media rush to rehabilitate Harris’s picture within the hopes that she will be able to tackle and beat former President Donald Trump.”

* * *

“Anticipate some GOP authorized challenges to taking Biden off the poll. However they’re longshots.” [Politico]. “Don’t consider the hype: Republicans are unlikely to achieve traction in authorized efforts to forestall Democrats from taking President Joe Biden off the poll. No state could have printed ballots previous to the Democratic Nationwide Conference, and the nominee chosen by the occasion at or within the run as much as the conference was all the time slated to be the one who seems on the poll in every state.” • After all, that is American, so anyone will be sued about something.

* * *

IL: “Biden’s resolution adjustments the calculus for 2028 hopefuls” [Politico]. “[Governor JB Pritzker of Illinois] has been working behind the scenes for years getting ready for a future presidential run. His political staff is made up of veterans from two previous political campaigns for governor, together with the seasoned marketing campaign supervisor Anne Caprara. The query is whether or not working for president dangers Pritzker, who co-chaired Hillary Clinton’s marketing campaign in 2008, being seen as pushing out a girl — and a girl of shade — in what can be a historic candidacy. In contrast to different potential presidential candidates, Pritzker is a billionaire who can self-fund a marketing campaign and wouldn’t want Biden’s marketing campaign funds to maneuver ahead. He can write a verify and construct infrastructure in each state and get on TV tomorrow, in line with Illinois marketing campaign veterans who have been granted anonymity to talk freely a couple of delicate topic.” • And better of all, he didn’t date Willie Brown! That we all know of, not less than.

MI: “Gov. Whitmer endorses Kamala Harris for president, says she’s not leaving Michigan” [Detroit News]. “Requested Monday morning if she was all for being vice chairman, Whitmer stated: ‘I’m not leaving Michigan. I’m proud to be the governor of Michigan. I’ve been constant. I do know everyone seems to be all the time suspicious and asking this query time and again … I’m not going anyplace.’ Whitmer introduced her assist for Harris a day after Democratic President Joe Biden revealed that he was dropping his reelection bid, 107 days earlier than the final election on Nov. 5. Whitmer, whom many Democrats see as a possible future candidate for president, had been a co-chairwoman of Biden’s marketing campaign and had repeatedly touted her perception within the 81-year-old Biden as others referred to as for him to get out of the race.” • Eight years of Kamala means the blight of the Democrat bench continues. If the Democrats can win the Home or the Senate, ideally each, with Biden off the highest of the ticket, it would go well with lots of bold electeds if Kamala didn’t make it.

PA: “Pennsylvania Democrats give blended response to concept of Harris as nominee” [Washington Examiner]. “Pennsylvania is arguably crucial swing state within the nation. However whereas gushing endorsements for Harris got here from the likes of Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington State, chairwoman of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Pennsylvania occasion leaders sang a special tune…. Sen. John Fetterman, a fearless supporter of the present president, stated he was unimpressed with the members of his personal occasion who pushed Biden out, who then praised him extravagantly solely after he withdrew. ‘Spare me the hovering accolades from individuals with their fingerprints on the blades in our President’s again,’ he stated…. One longtime Democratic voter, a union Democrat who has by no means voted Republican, stated he felt, ‘Harris wasn’t up for the job, I hope it will likely be another person, I don’t like how they pushed Joe out.’ … .Whereas elected Democrats, together with Democrat Gov. Josh Shapiro, spent the day sending out full assist for Harris, Democrats right here in Pennsylvania fear about her attraction within the state, particularly in Western Pennsylvania the place hydraulic fracking has been an financial recreation changer—one thing Harris adamantly opposes…. On the politics of the Keystone State, political science professor Jeff Brauer stated Pennsylvania stays important to a presidential victory of both occasion. ‘Biden has all the time had shut ties to Pennsylvania, particularly along with his hometown of Scranton and First Girl Jill Biden contemplating herself a Philadelphian,’ he stated, including, ‘with out Biden on the ticket, the probabilities for Democrats on this all-critical state definitely diminish.’ Brauer stated if Harris is chosen, this state is in flux for Democrats, extra so than it was earlier than the talk and the assassination try on Trump right here, ‘Many in Pennsylvania, which is usually a reasonable state, will discover her to be too liberal,’ he stated. Which implies undoubtedly, her vice-presidential choose then will change into crucial electorally, and he factors to Shapiro as a wonderful choice on this regard.” • See The New Arab, “Who’s Josh Shapiro, the ‘pro-Israel’ frontrunner tipped to be Kamala Harris’ working mate?” and Highlight PA, “Shapiro orders state workers to keep away from ‘scandalous’ conduct amid Gaza protests, elevating free speech issues.” Nevertheless, with Shapiro, the Democrats might commerce a greater likelihood in PA for worse probabilities in MI and MN. They usually want all three.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“‘I’m not voting’: Why ought to Donald Trump, Kamala Harris or anybody else make a distinction to my funds? I’ll by no means have the ability to retire and I’m all the time broke.” [MarketWatch]. Query: “Expensive Quentin, I don’t care. I believe they’re all the identical. My life has been a battle for the final 10 years and it has made no distinction who’s president of this nation: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris or whoever finally ends up taking up the Democratic ticket for president. What does it matter to somebody like me? I’ll by no means have the ability to retire. A short abstract: I’m in my 50s and nonetheless renting. I can’t afford to purchase a home and I by no means have any cash on the finish of the month. I earn $67,000 a 12 months, an honest wage by most requirements, but it surely doesn’t go far. I dread getting older as I might want to preserve working. America is split between purple and blue, however I’m uninterested in all the sport taking part in and level scoring. Simply sharing my ideas about why I’m not voting. You learn that accurately: I received’t be going to the polling sales space in November. –Fed Up in Virginia (and Fed Up with D.C.). Prolonged reply, concluding: “Expensive Virginian…. It’s not good to really feel you’ll by no means have the ability to afford to retire. However keep in mind: Social Safety was signed into legislation by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1935. Whether or not you’re a Republican, Democrat or Impartial, go to the poll field on Nov. 5, and let your voice be heard.”

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Basic Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep protected on the market!

Transmission: Covid

“Age-specific nasal epithelial responses to SARS-CoV-2 an infection” [Nature]. From the Dialogue: “In abstract, now we have proven that SARS-CoV-2 reveals age-specific tropism in nasal epithelial cells, focusing on goblet cells in kids and secretory cells in older adults. Paediatric cells exhibit a robust antiviral response, leading to restricted viral replication. Older grownup cells endure shedding and extra epithelial injury. Altered restore pathways and a rise in basaloid-like 2 cells related to fibrosis markers contribute to larger viral unfold in older adults. These findings present insights into age-related COVID-19 pathogenesis and show how impaired restore processes improve SARS-CoV-2 an infection in older people.”

Private RIsk Evaluation

Private threat evaluation… is different individuals:

Lambert right here: Seems like the vacation journey dumped accelerant on the pre-existing surge; see particularly the expansion in wastewater “sizzling spots.” Keep protected on the market!

Tech: “The intense science of trolling LLMs” [lcamtuf’s thing]. “We have been speaking about trolling massive language fashions — that’s, the observe of fidgeting with the immediate to get the machine to say one thing outrageous or nonsensical, after which publicly displaying the consequence to earn retweets and likes… [B]ecause the fashions’ internals are inscrutable, the proxy measurement we depend on is the extent to which the fashions seem human-like. An LLM caught within the uncanny valley is sure to scare the purchasers away. Responding to this incentive, distributors interact in sleight-of-hand. The fashions are made to look extra human by forcing them to feign feelings, profusely apologize for errors, and even reply with scripted jokes that masks the LLMs’ incapacity to write down something resembling humor…. The distributors’ hope is that with time, we are going to attain full human-LLM parity; and till then, it’s OK to fudge it a bit. From this angle, the viral examples that make it patently clear that the fashions don’t motive like people will not be simply PR annoyances; they’re a risk to product technique. Removed from being a waste of time, web trolling is changing into a respectable scientific pursuit. When a mannequin aces a human benchmark, it’s onerous to know the way a lot of this may be credited to reasoning and the way a lot of it boils all the way down to recall from the coaching knowledge set. It’s when it fails at a easy job that we all know what the restrictions are — and trolls are the torch-bearers of this new englightenment.”

Manufacturing: “Boeing is providing a stark and costly instance of how supply-chain shortfalls can set off cascading issues throughout an organization’s operations” “[Logistics Report, Wall Street Journal]. “Components shortages and different points have left the jet maker going through a serious storage subject, with about 200 totally or principally completed airplanes sitting in airfields, exterior vegetation and—in a single location—an worker parking zone. The WSJ’s Sharon Terlep stories that provider shortages have saddled the corporate with planes wanting elements reminiscent of seats and emergency doorways. However a handful of 777 freighters in Everett, Wash., are awaiting engines as a result of producer GE Aerospace has struggled with shortfalls from its personal suppliers. Boeing had delivered solely two freighters this 12 months by way of Could. However the engines have began rolling in, and Boeing delivered 5 of the planes in June. The larger downside is with passenger jets together with some single-aisle 737 MAXs that at the moment are a number of years outdated.”

At this time’s Concern & Greed Index: 53 Impartial (earlier shut: 49 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 63 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 22 at 12:14:59 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on Floods. “It has been dry in lots of elements of the US” [Rapture Ready]. Document Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 184. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) • Exhausting to consider the Rapture Index goes down. The place are there individuals getting their information?!

Poetry Nook

“Homage to John Donne” [Michael Smith, Crying in the Wilderness]. “Spirit we’re however but embodied too….”

The Gallery

Add a component of horror to the brushwork, and I’m reminded of Francis Bacon!

Zeitgeist Watch

What occurs to Western Civilization if no person can learn?

This can be a lengthy thread; click on by way of for a whole picture (particularly in case you are a instructor).

Class Warfare

“No One Expects Younger Males To Do Something and They Are Responding By Doing Nothing” [Rob Henderson’s Newsletter]. Hmm:

In case you come from poverty and chaos, you’re up in opposition to 3 enemies:

1. Dysfunction and deprivation

2. Your self, because of what that atmosphere does to you

3. The higher class, who desires to maintain you mired in it.

The individuals with essentially the most cash and schooling—the class most accountable for shaping politics and tradition and customs—be certain that their kids are raised in steady houses.

However actively undermine the norm for everybody else.

The educated class decides cohabiting partnerships are simply as legitimate and essential as marriage. They usually additionally consider it’s okay to stroll away at a second’s discover from a cohabiting relationship.

Luxurious beliefs are concepts and opinions that confer standing on the higher class whereas usually inflicting prices on the decrease lessons.

“Actively undermining norms” jogs my memory of what our ruling class has completed to public well being.

Information of the Wired

I’m not but fully wired.

Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a verify in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of vegetation. Greens are advantageous! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it initially of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From SC:

SC writes: “Bee foraging at a Milkweed plant of questionable parentage.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So when you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get frightened. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets: