By Lambert Strether of Corrente

Too-patient readers, thanks on your expressions of concern over my “main life occasion” (and no, I didn’t win the lottery, or get married). The requirement is coping with a number of inter-related venture administration points, together with sunk prices. Life has ready me for such issues, I hope. If I need assistance (uncertain, besides on your accepting my briefly restricted time) I’ll attain out, thanks! In the meantime, if I had wished to share element, I’d have. So please don’t speculate. And discuss election 2024 as a lot as you want in feedback; simply play good! –lambert

Hen Music of the Day

Catbirds are within the Mimidae specie (!), like mockingbird and thrashers. Readers have stated they just like the mimicry, so hopefully MacCaulay Library has sufficient recordings to maintain us all glad, at the very least for a time.

Black Catbird, Planta de Tratamiento de Aguas Residuales de San Miguel, Cozumel, Quintana Roo, Mexico.

In Case You May Miss…

1. “It’s too quickly to inform”.
2. Detective sought for Kamala masks video.
3. Pandemics are mobility-borne.

Politics

“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in reality a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

2024

Lower than 100 days to go!

Friday’s RCP Ballot Averages:

Excellent news for Trump in that final week’s deterioration appears to have been slowed, though we will must see if Kamala will get a conference “bounce.” Keep in mind, nevertheless, that each one the fluctuations — in reality, all of the leads — are inside the margin of error. In case you learn many of the press, you’d assume Kamala has this race within the bag. It’s not so. Do observe, nevertheless, Trump’s deterioration in North Carolina: +2.4 final week to +0.9 this week, when OG pollster Sabato moved it to “toss-up” standing from “lean Republican.” No marvel Trump held a rally there this week. NOTE With Kennedy, it will appear, about to drop out, I began monitoring the nationwide share as “Prime Battlegrounds,” the place Trump’s shrinking lead is +0.1 this week (versus “5-Means RCP Common, the place Harris led by +1.1 final week).

“Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?” [FiveThirtyEight]. Not Nate Silver, as reader have jogged my memory. “n Friday, Aug. 23, impartial candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. introduced he was suspending his marketing campaign for president and endorsed former President Donald Trump. The endorsement from Kennedy, at 4 p.c within the in style vote in our forecast, has the power to present Trump a vital enhance in battleground states. Our mannequin forecast a 4-in-10 likelihood that Kennedy’s vote share in November could be bigger than the margin for both Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris in at the very least one decisive state. Each candidates will doubtless welcome that likelihood going to zero. It’s troublesome, nevertheless, to offer a fast evaluation of RFK’s influence on the race. On the one hand, his influence on our polling common is small and Kennedy’s voters principally in any other case seem like sturdy partisans. However it isn’t really easy for a forecasting mannequin to react to such a pointy change within the race, primarily as a result of it wants information (from the polls) to take action. Though you and I do know that Kennedy endorsed Trump, which ought to in idea assist him a bit of, the mannequin doesn’t have entry to that info till it sees polling information displaying such a shift. Programming the mannequin a special approach would require us to take a position, principally with advert hoc rationalization, in regards to the future trajectory of the race. We desire to go away such forecasting to the mannequin. Readers ought to anticipate our mannequin to react to this information over the following week, if Kennedy’s endorsement of Trump does in reality change the polls.” • Arduous to say “It’s too quickly to inform” in a hundred- now seventy-day race, however it’s too quickly to inform. Absent one other staggering occasion, I’d say “it’s too quickly to inform” will persist all the way in which to the top of the race.

It’s too quickly to inform:

Checked in with sources in MI WI and PA at this time and all of them stated the race is basically tied — inside the margin of error. https://t.co/UGOKAFAYkW

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) August 26, 2024

Let’s wait every week, then see!

* * *

Kamala (D): “Black Lives Matter Assertion on Kamala Harris Securing Sufficient Delegates to Turn out to be Democratic Nominee” [Black Lives Matter]:

Whereas Joe Biden wasn’t our most well-liked candidate, we can’t ignore the troubling actions of the Democratic Social gathering:

• The DNC refused to host debates in the course of the main, although a overwhelming majority of Democratic voters wished them. This may have doubtless allowed America to see the decline of Joe Biden in 2023.
• The DNC modified the first schedule and created guidelines that made it virtually not possible for non-Biden candidates to look on the poll, successfully clearing the sphere of any challengers to the incumbent president.
• Following the first the place tens of millions of Black voters weighed in, after one poor debate efficiency, the DNC Social gathering elites and billionaire donors bullied Joe Biden out of the race.

Now, Democratic Social gathering elites and billionaire donors try to govern Black voters by anointing Kamala Harris and an unknown vice chairman as the brand new Democratic ticket and not using a main vote by the general public. This blatant disregard for democratic ideas is unacceptable. Whereas the potential consequence of a Harris presidency could also be historic, the method to realize it should align with true democratic values. We do not know the place Kamala Harris stands on the problems, now that she has assumed Joe Biden’s place, and we do not know of the report of her potential vice chairman as a result of we don’t even know who it’s but.

They sound identical to Kennedy. Extra:

Allow us to be clear: That is in regards to the Democratic Social gathering following a course of that protects the legitimacy of any future Democratic president following this unprecedented second. Putting in Kamala Harris because the Democratic nominee and an unknown vice chairman with none public voting course of would make the fashionable Democratic Social gathering a celebration of hypocrites. It might undermine their credibility on points associated to democracy. Think about our first Black girl president not having gained some kind of public nomination course of. The pundits would instantly label it as affirmative motion or a DEI transfer, and any progress made by a President Harris could be on shaky foundations. If Kamala Harris is to be the nominee, it should be via a course of that upholds democratic ideas and public participation.

The DEI speaking level is already on the market (though as a Republican speaking level.)

Kamala (D): “‘Merely put, they’re out of their minds’: Kamala Harris gained’t let Republicans conceal their misogyny” [Amanda Marcotte, Salon]. • I didn’t know Marcotte was nonetheless typing.

* * *

Trump (R): “The Case for Staying Nervous within the Slog Forward” [The Bulwark]. “Bounces following conventions have thinned in latest cycles as a result of rising polarization has yielded fewer swing voters. Hillary Clinton acquired an 8-point bounce after her conference after which misplaced to Trump. Trump is unquestionably flailing, unable to command the eye he as soon as might, and self-destructing due to it. The chances are that on the debate scheduled for September 10, the actual Trump will present up, be an asshole, and lose.” • That Trump is an asshole is already priced in. The query is when and the way (I imply, was Trump an asshole when he stated Biden “beat it to loss of life” on Medicare? Actually. Did he win the talk and knock Biden out of the race? He did.

* * *

Kennedy (I): “RFK Jr. says he’s been tapped for Trump’s transition crew” [Axios]. “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. instructed Tucker Carlson throughout an interview that aired Monday that he was requested to hitch former President Trump’s presidential transition crew, and he’s ‘trying ahead to that.’” • In my sizzling tackle Kennedy’s enlistment within the Trump marketing campaign, I emphasised the “fuzziness” of Kennedy’s future place within the govt department. Anyone who remembers what occurred to the Sandernistas on the Biden transition crew will look askance at this.

Kennedy (I): “Will RFK Jr.’s endorsement swing the election to Trump?” [The Hill]. “Hundreds of thousands upon tens of millions of Individuals really feel completely disenfranchised by a system seemingly rigged to learn the elites. For a mess of causes, Kennedy could also be one of the best individual to seize their consideration and persuade a quantity to both forged their vote for Trump or change their vote from Harris. Even a 1 p.c swing in Trump’s favor might make all of the distinction in states equivalent to Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and North Carolina. By attacking Kennedy, Biden-Harris, the Democratic powerbrokers and far of the mainstream media foolishly woke up a sleeping big — one who, due to his personal distinctive physique of labor and his still-revered household title, has super rapport with and respect from minority communities; blue collar employees; rust belt employees; union employees; dad and mom of kids with persistent ailments; communities coping with polluted lands and waterways; younger voters; impartial voters; and the disenfranchised.” • Possibly. It’s. Too. Quickly. To. Inform.

Realignment and Legitimacy

“Swing States Notch Main Victories For Election Integrity” [Association of Mature American CItizens]. I gained’t be becoming a member of this one! “Election integrity” (“By no means eat at a spot referred to as Mother’s”) is a time period to be careful for. However this can be a good compendium of actions taken on the state degree, together with paper ballots.

Syndemics

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, KF, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

Transmission: H5N1

“”PROPAGANDIZED?” Media and Federal Avian Flu Responses Stress Covid-Period Belief Points Amid mRNA Push” [Beef News]. “‘It’s virtually as if the general public has been propagandized,’ Thornsberry stated throughout a cellphone interview with BeefNews. ‘For no matter motive, the media and the USDA have actually downplayed the impacts of this virus on dairy farms, whereas deceptive the general public on human dangers.’ Following the devastating Texas panhandle fires in early March, dairy farms within the Texas Panhandle started to note a lower in milk manufacturing in a number of lactating cows. Initially, signs had been regarded as linked to the fires, till some cows started discharging thick, yellow milk, in regards to the consistency of Elmer’s glue. Assessments for mastitis got here again unfavorable as different signs started to current in a small share of the regional dairy herd. In keeping with the presentation, about 20 p.c of the Texas dairy herd Petersen oversaw started going off their feed and salivating excessively. A smaller p.c of the herd (about 5 p.c) exhibited vital signs—equivalent to excessive fevers between 105-107 levels. As one of many first veterinarians on the entrance traces, Petersen ran each take a look at she might consider, however all of them got here again unfavorable. Casting a wider internet, Petersen despatched in samples to check for Avian Flu, which then got here again as optimistic. , the media narrative and federal rules are ramping up—neither of which look like useful.” • Good to see Peterson get a shout-out. I hadn’t recognized the Texas Panhandle hearth was a potential precursor. However as for “the virus itself winds down”, how would we all know that? (I suppose if State Honest season ends and not using a main outbreak, we will breathe a sigh of aid, however that technique appears a bit of rough-and-ready.)

Vaccines: Covid

One hates to attribute motive, however the persevering with FDA hold-up on Novavas doesn’t explicable on both a well being or public coverage foundation:

When you’ve Redfield saying the apparent and simpler vaccine is from NOVAVAX…..
Possibly @US_FDA and @CDCDirector ought to take into consideration life being extra necessary than Moderna and Pfizer’s PROFITS and your future profession strikes https://t.co/VLch3wXY3N

— Evaluar (@bio_evaluar) August 18, 2024

Transmission: Monkeypox

Pandemics are mobility-borne:

You may have dozens if not a whole lot of flights departing a sizzling zone internet hosting a novel Mpox clade with a present mortality fee of near 4%. You simply can’t make these items up. pic.twitter.com/10p5NjGqYS

— Michael (@mrmickme2) August 27, 2024

Norman, Bar-Yam, and Taleb obtained this precisely proper in January 2020 (!): “International connectivity is at an all-time excessive… Basically, viral contagion occasions rely on the interplay of brokers in bodily area… With rising transportation we’re near a transition to circumstances by which extinction turns into sure each due to fast unfold and due to the selective dominance of more and more worse pathogens…. [T]hese observations result in the need of a precautionary method to present and potential pandemic outbreaks that should embrace constraining mobility patterns within the early levels of an outbreak, particularly when little is thought in regards to the true parameters of the pathogen…. It’s going to price one thing to cut back mobility within the brief time period, however to fail achieve this will finally price the whole lot—if not from this occasion, then one sooner or later.”

Elite Maleficence

Though I had hoped to publish on masking on the DNC, the clock ran out. Tomorrow, a giant round-up. Nonetheless, as quickly because the DNC masking story obtained traction, this Tiktok video from a Harris-affilated website, by which Kamala is masked, began propagating on the Twitter. Are there any detectives within the readership? Right here’s the video:

@2024voteharris “I used to be ready to speak to you” 🥹 #kamalaharris #harris2024 #trump #trump2024 #democrat #election #republican #unitedstates #usa ♬ authentic sound – HARRIS 2024

Reader detective, are you able to run down when and the place this video was recorded? “I used to be ready to speak to you” doesn’t present up anyplace however on this video and derivatives (i.e., not in any reporting). As far as I can inform, Kamala was not scheduled to look at any faculties after the conference, so the video was recorded beforehand. However how a lot earlier than? I’m guessing when the Biden administration nonetheless really useful masking, however Lambert the Cautious want to make certain. Thanks! (Trendy black masks, although. They weren’t simple for lots of people to get.)

CDC and CMS transfer, one hopes, in response to strain for good information:

Due to everybody’s advocacy, CMS can be requiring hospitals to report key COVID, flu, and RSV information once more, after the CDC ended this requirement earlier this 12 months. https://t.co/kqQfjH0Loa

— Dr. Fortunate Tran (@luckytran) August 23, 2024

Possibly if HICPAC can handle to get a quorum collectively for the following assembly, they’ll do one thing equally wise and require common masking in hospital settings.

TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts

Lambert right here: Since issues are unhealthy out on the West Coast, I went searching for California hospitalization information to check with New York’s, and located this: “As a consequence of adjustments in reporting necessities for hospitals, CDPH is now not together with hospitalization information on the CDPH dashboard. CDPH stays dedicated to monitoring the extreme outcomes of COVID-19 and influenza, together with the influence on hospitals. CDC’s Nationwide Healthcare Security Community (NHSN) will stay open to just accept information, and CDC and CDPH strongly encourage all services to proceed reporting.” Thanks, Mandy!

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC). The visualization suppresses what’s, in share phrases, a big enhance.

[7] (Walgreens) Fiddling and diddling.

[8] (Cleveland) Leaping.

[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up. These sh*theads at CDC have modified the chart in order that it doesn’t even run again to 1/21/23, because it used to, however now begins 1/1/24. There’s additionally no approach to modify the time vary. CDC actually doesn’t need you to have the ability to take a historic view of the pandemic, or examine one surge to a different. In an any case, that’s why the form of the curve has modified.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) The brand new variant in China, XDV.1, is just not displaying up right here.

[11] Deaths low, however positivity up.

[12] Deaths low, ED up.

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity at this time.

Tech: “The Root Causes of Failure for Synthetic Intelligence Initiatives and How They Can Succeed” [RAND]. “By some estimates, greater than 80 p.c of AI initiatives fail — twice the speed of failure for info expertise initiatives that don’t contain AI. Thus, understanding the best way to translate AI’s huge potential into concrete outcomes stays an pressing problem. The findings and suggestions of this report needs to be of curiosity to the U.S. Division of Protection, which has been actively searching for methods to make use of AI, together with different leaders in authorities and the non-public sector who’re contemplating utilizing AI/ML.” • The “root trigger” bullet factors deal with neither AI bullshit (not “hallucinations,” bullshit) nor AI coaching set theft. Apart from that, this web page might need been machine-generated from some mixture of pre-existing white paper slop.

Right now’s Worry & Greed Index: 55 Impartial (earlier shut: 52 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 46 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Aug 26 at 1:32:02 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 182. Present: 183. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) • Arduous to imagine the Rapture Index goes down. The place are there folks getting their information?

Gallery

I’m a bit of suspicious of this account — it’s AI? however the juxtapositions are nonetheless fascinating. Thread:

Information of the Wired

“Consuming the Birds of America: Audubon’s Culinary Opinions of America’s Birds” [US Bird History]. “Whether or not birds had been giant or small, acquainted or obscure, palatable or nauseating, Audubon made sampling their meat part of his in depth means of learning America’s birds for his Ornithological Biography, or, An account of the habits of the birds of the US of America, a five-volume textual content that will accompany the 435 work that composed his Birds of America, for which he gained his fame. Alongside an outline of every hen’s look, weight loss program, conduct, and breeding habits, Audubon regularly included a mirrored image on the style of the hen’s flesh.” • Hmm.

Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me pictures of vegetation. Greens are effective! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you need your deal with to look as a credit score, please place it at first of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From IM:

IM writes: “It’s that point of 12 months. Is it a sundown photograph or a plant photograph? In case you are on crew plant, it’s Doug Fir * 4 ranging from the left, then a Gingko. If on crew sundown, it’s Aug 2 at in regards to the forty ninth parallel.”

Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. Materials right here is Lambert’s, and doesn’t specific the views of the Bare Capitalism website. In case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see anyplace else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible type. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. Once I get no donations for 3 or 4 days I get fearful. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising targets: