By Thomas Neuburger. Initially revealed at God’s Spies.
Analyses of the current historic Democratic loss are thick on the bottom. Some present information or forensic evaluation and a few prescribe, giving recipes for what to do in another way.
Earlier than I delve into forensics of my very own, I’d like to supply materials from different quarters to your consideration. Think about this a mosaic of what’s being mentioned. What do you suppose this provides as much as?
I’ll supply my very own take quickly, this week or subsequent.
What the Occasion Anticipated Lengthy Time period
To know what occurred this week, I believe we have to begin right here. This chart is from a 2020 Middle for American Progress (CAP) report titled “America’s Electoral Future: The Coming Generational Transformation”. It claims to indicate the “full era impact” on voting for the subsequent few cycles in chosen states. Notice the gradual however inevitable march to the ocean — on this case, the nice and cozy embrace of the Occasion in blue.
Notice the highlighted projection for 2024. (2020 is proven as a projection as a result of the research was revealed earlier than that yr’s election. Of the states CAP projected to show blue in 2020, all however Florida did.)
The youth vote was presupposed to be a really giant a part of this transfer, however because the inhabitants shifted, nearly all segments have been supposed to show blue finally.
What Really Occurred: Voter Segments
The precise outcomes have been drastically completely different this time. Let’s begin with voter segments.
Youth Realignment
With the CAP report in thoughts, take into account this from The Circle at Tufts College, which research the youth vote:
In response to CIRCLE analyses of the AP VoteCast Survey, nationally 52% of youth voted for Vice President Harris and 46% of youth voted for President Trump. …[I]n 2020 [Trump] obtained 36% of votes from 18- to 29-year-old voters.
Democratic youth vote collapsed by practically 20% of its 2020 quantity. Right here’s what that appears like by gender, 2024 vs 2020:
Return to the CAP projection above. Of the states projected to show blue in 2024 — Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina — none did. Arizona, which has but been known as, is leaning towards Trump.
Earnings Realignment
Exit polls present earnings realignment. In 2020, all earnings teams besides the cheap effectively off (these making greater than $100,000 per yr) favored Democrats by rather a lot.
All of that modified in 2024. Each low and center earnings teams now help Republicans, whereas the effectively off now help Dems. The margins are smaller, however the change is unmistakable.
In the primary, Democrats most signify the effectively off.
Race and Ethnicity Shifts
Many have already famous the change in help amongst racial and ethnicity teams. CNN has performed plenty of evaluation utilizing the exit polls:
Latino voters, and males specifically, have been transferring towards Trump since 2016. This yr, Latino males broke in his course for the primary time. Biden gained their help by 23 factors in 2020 and Trump gained them in 2024. Latina ladies nonetheless favored Harris, however by smaller margins than they supported both Clinton or Biden.
Instructional Hole Assist
From CNN once more. Trump’s help amongst whites with no diploma stays sturdy. Harris misplaced help amongst voters of colour each with and with out levels.
Harris’s drop from Clinton in 2016 is particularly stark.
Financial system Voters Broke for Trump
Views on the financial system and private expertise of hardship motivated many citizens towards Trump. If the financial system was your difficulty, you in all probability voted for Trump.
The quantity of people that thought they have been doing worse greater than doubled since 2020.
In 2020, nearly one-fifth of voters mentioned they have been doing worse than 4 years earlier than. This yr, it’s practically half of voters who say they’re doing worse than 4 years in the past. Trump gained them overwhelmingly.
One might argue that the primary chart is subjective (“views” are all the time subjective), however the second (“household has fallen behind”) is probably going fact-based.
‘Democracy at Stake’
Lastly, the “democracy at stake” message labored solely with Democrats.
What Really Occurred: The Voters Everall
Some information from the citizens total: combined messages.
Close to Common ‘Pink Shift’
Right here’s the purple shift by county (all voters) as of this writing:
Nationwide Standard Vote
But with all this shifting towards Trump, the general nationwide in style vote went down whereas Trump’s share went up:
Wooing the Republican Occasion
The Democrats closing technique appeared to be to seize Republican voters who might not have favored Trump. Right here’s how that labored out (hat tip Dave Johnson by e mail).
‘Double Haters’ Broke for Trump
Actually, individuals who hated (“had an unfavorable view of”) each candidates largely selected Trump over Harris.
I’m amongst those that didn’t suppose that may occur.
Evaluation: Occasion Professionals
Various individuals near the Occasion core — consultants, media professionals and the like — have provided their ideas.
One of many extra notable (and typical) takes is by Morning Joe Scarborough, speaking with Rev. Al Sharpton. Backside line: Racism and sexism doomed the marketing campaign.
“Blame the citizens” responses are in all places. Right here’s marketing campaign and gun management activist Shannon Watts:
Feminist author Jill Filipovic:
DNC chair Jaime Harrison, countering Bernie Sanders’ pro-populist recommendation:
Basically, Occasion leaders and supporters say Harris ran a good marketing campaign. It’s not her fault.
Evaluation: Others Weigh In
Others have differing opinions. Economist Pavlina Tcherneva, in an excellent Twitter thread, notes what number of progressive measures handed in Trump-won states.
Ian Welsh took a have a look at abortion reform — poll measures that supported it and the way Harris did in these states:
David Sirota thinks Harris’s embrace of the wealthy had a serious damping impact:
And take into account this, from the late David Graeber on the sin of “radical centrism”. He claims Obama, and by extension a lot of the Occasion, is responsible (hat tip Double Down Information).
Meals for thought, sure? Most likely greater than a meal’s price.
Music
Why not? Some might keep in mind this one on the issue of selecting.
