At present’s agenda: G20 summit begins; ECB report on financial institution capital necessities; monitoring the German election; stealth sackings; and offshore oil is again

Good morning. We kick off the week with information that US President Joe Biden has authorised Ukraine to launch restricted strikes into Russia utilizing US-made long-range missiles, two individuals acquainted with the choice mentioned.

What triggered the coverage shift? Biden is shifting his stance in response to the deployment of 1000’s of North Korean troops to help Moscow’s struggle effort and after a barrage of Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities on the weekend.

The transfer comes after months of resisting pleas by Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to carry restrictions on the usage of western-made, long-range weapons inside Russia, and about two months earlier than the tip of Biden’s White Home time period in January.

Why it issues: “Even when restricted to the Kursk area, ATACMS [Army Tactical Missile System] missiles put in danger excessive worth Russian programs, meeting areas, logistics, command and management,” mentioned Michael Kofman, senior fellow on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace think-tank. “They could allow Ukraine to carry on to Kursk for longer and lift the prices to North Korea for its involvement within the struggle.”

Invoice Taylor, former US ambassador to Ukraine, mentioned Biden’s determination made “Ukraine stronger and will increase the percentages of a simply finish to the struggle” and “can also unlock British and French missiles. Probably even German”. Learn the complete story.

And right here’s what else we’re preserving tabs on right this moment:

• G20 summit: Officers from the world’s richest nations collect right this moment in Rio de Janeiro, with Donald Trump’s re-election threatening to disrupt worldwide initiatives on local weather change and taxation. UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer may also urge G20 leaders to “double down” on help for Ukraine.

• UK-China ties: Starmer holds the first face-to-face talks by a British prime minister with China’s President Xi Jinping since 2018.

• UK weapons lawsuit: London’s Excessive Courtroom begins listening to a case in opposition to the earlier UK authorities’s determination to proceed arms gross sales to Israel.

• UK financial information: Rightmove releases its November home value index and S&P World publishes its UK shopper sentiment index.

• Corporations: Boohoo is because of announce the outcomes of its retail supply of recent bizarre shares. Massive Yellow Group, Cerillion and Sirius Actual Property have outcomes.

5 extra high tales

1. Iran has stored the door open to negotiations with Donald Trump’s administration, however warned that any try to reimpose “most strain” will fail to extract concessions from the Islamic republic. Learn the Monetary Occasions’ interview with deputy overseas minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi, who mentioned the 2015 nuclear deal — from which Trump withdrew — “might nonetheless function a basis”.

2. Unique: The European Central Financial institution is debating whether or not to publish delicate analysis exhibiting capital necessities for giant EU lenders would rise by a double-digit share in the event that they confronted the identical guidelines as giant Wall Road rivals. Right here’s what else we all know in regards to the ECB report, which some senior policymakers are pushing to publish to counter heavy lobbying to water down the foundations.

3. The UK authorities might power pension funds to speculate extra in British belongings if reforms fail to drive financial savings into home infrastructure and corporations. Pensions minister Emma Reynolds advised the FT: “We’re an outlier when it comes to our personal pension schemes.” Learn the complete report.

4. European plastics producers are closing crops amid a deep decline in manufacturing as EU firms wrestle to compete with a worldwide glut of low cost materials. Plastic manufacturing in Europe declined 8.3 per cent in 2023, in sharp distinction with a 3.4 per cent improve globally as nations together with China and the US scaled up manufacturing.

5. US enterprise leaders are warning that Donald Trump’s plan to deport tens of millions of undocumented staff might create mass labour shortages, closing eating places, crippling farms and small companies and elevating costs. One immigration lawyer mentioned: “Individuals are frightened in regards to the value of meals now? Wait till [food producers] can’t get staff.”

Join for our White Home Watch e-newsletter for extra updates from Washington because it braces itself for Trump’s second time period.

The Massive Learn

Years after one of many worst spills in historical past within the Gulf of Mexico, oil firms are drilling even deeper into the seabed seeking discoveries. However whereas the business heralds a new period in offshore drilling, the rise in exercise — with nearly $104bn anticipated to be invested this yr — has raised considerations.

We’re additionally studying and listening to . . . 

• Investability hole: UK banks are bracing themselves for a aggressive menace from Donald Trump’s deregulatory agenda that’s set to deliver many advantages for US banks, writes Patrick Jenkins.

• EU problem: Leaders throughout the Atlantic know they have to make Europe nice once more. However the place is the cash going to return from?

• Stealth sackings: Small-scale dismissals — over seemingly minor violations — are prompting questions on whether or not price financial savings are being disguised.

• Economics Present 🎧: Soumaya Keynes asks Kimberly Clausing, a professor at UCLA and previously Biden administration economist: would Trump’s tariffs actually be that unhealthy?

Chart of the day

The German federal election on February 23 will decide the destiny of Europe’s largest financial system. Voters will go to the polls seven months sooner than deliberate after the ruling coalition collapsed this month. Comply with the FT’s reside ballot tracker right here.

Take a break from the information

The Who’s 1966 observe that cemented the band’s pivotal position in rock’s improvement — ‘Substitute’ — is a witty snapshot of an insecure British youth negotiating the last decade’s radical social change. The music typified the more durable, louder ‘rock’ style, and was later coated in a number of kinds.