Kamala Harris’s keynote deal with to US Democrats on Thursday night time had an viewers removed from the conference corridor in Chicago: policymakers in Beijing.
For China’s leaders, who had been getting ready for what they noticed as an unpalatable selection between two recognized hawks in incumbent Joe Biden and his Republican rival Donald Trump, Harris’s sudden elevation final month added extra uncertainty to what was already an important election for US-China relations.
President Xi Jinping’s administration might be now parsing the vice-president’s statements and document for clues of what a Harris administration’s stance could be in direction of relations with Beijing — and whether or not it could be preferable to a second Trump time period.
“Trump and Kamala Harris are two bowls of poison for Beijing,” mentioned Zhao Minghao, a professor of the Institute of Worldwide Research and Heart for American Research at Fudan College. “Each see China as a competitor and even an adversary.”
Whereas Harris co-sponsored payments when she was a senator defending human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, the north-western area the place Beijing has detained almost 1mn primarily Uyghur Muslim minorities, Trump launched the commerce battle, and has pledged increased tariffs on Chinese language items if he wins once more.
Harris talked about China simply as soon as in her speech to the Democratic conference, vowing to make sure “that America — not China — wins the competitors for the twenty first century”.
Trump, against this, referred to China 14 instances on the Republican Nationwide Conference final month, together with boasting that he had saved Beijing “at bay” throughout his presidency and bemoaning the lack of Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan, which he claimed was “one hour away from the place China makes their nuclear weapons”, an implicit risk.
“Folks know quite a bit about Trump, about how he intends to manipulate if elected,” mentioned Thomas Qitong Cao, assistant professor at Tufts College’s Fletcher Faculty of worldwide affairs. “Whereas for Harris, there’s nonetheless numerous thriller.”
Earlier than turning into vice-president, Harris — who has by no means been to China — had comparatively little publicity to international affairs. Since taking workplace, she has travelled abroad 17 instances, together with making 4 visits to east Asia, the place she briefly met Xi in Thailand in 2022 and rubbed shoulders along with his quantity two, premier Li Qiang, in Jakarta final 12 months.
Most Chinese language teachers mentioned that extra necessary than Harris’s document within the much less highly effective place of vice-president was whether or not she would retain members of Biden’s international coverage group, corresponding to secretary of state Antony Blinken, his deputy Kurt Campbell and nationwide safety adviser Jake Sullivan, in addition to different senior officers who’ve been instrumental to hawkish insurance policies on China.
Uncertainty over her group has left not solely Beijing however even specialists in Washington dashing to work out who she would choose for necessary positions on the area, notably China. Her nationwide safety adviser as vice-president, Philip Gordon, is just not an Asia skilled.
“What actually issues is who she trusts as a result of she is just not an skilled on international affairs,” mentioned Wang Chong, a international coverage skilled at Zhejiang Worldwide Research College, who added that Harris’s nomination got here as a “shock” for a lot of in China.
Her operating mate, Tim Walz, had the potential to deliver a extra private contact to bilateral relations, some Chinese language analysts mentioned. Whereas Walz, who first visited China a long time in the past as a younger trainer, has been sharply essential of the Chinese language Communist occasion, he’s remembered fondly by these he interacted with within the nation.
Walz has additionally met the Dalai Lama, whose assembly final week with US officers sparked anger from Beijing.
“His private qualities made me really feel that the surface world was pleasant,” mentioned Christy Dai, one among his former college students at Foshan No 1 Excessive Faculty, the place Walz taught in 1989. “If there’s a world chief like him”, worldwide affairs may transfer within the “proper course”, she informed the Monetary Occasions.
However “simply because an individual is aware of about China, that doesn’t imply they help China”, Wang mentioned.
Whereas Biden has rallied US allies to impose export controls on superior know-how and elements to China and deepen safety co-operation within the area, his officers have additionally tried to foster communication with Beijing.
“Biden’s officers have been emphasising that the US doesn’t need decoupling, they need de-risking,” Fudan’s Zhao mentioned, including that the softer tone was in response to strain from enterprise to de-escalate tensions and confirmed that Democrats had been capable of “hearken to society”.
He advised that there could be extra continuity and predictability from a Harris presidency than “Trump 2.0”.
Chinese language policymakers concern {that a} Trump administration, somewhat than pursuing a coverage of “managing competitors”, would search “victory” in a brand new chilly battle whose final goal many analysts suspect is regime change. For the Communist occasion, this could be an existential risk.
“China can solely and can solely want the lesser of two evils elected,” mentioned Shi Yinhong, professor of worldwide relations at Renmin College in Beijing.
Some analysts argue that one other Trump presidency would profit China by sowing home chaos within the US and upending Washington’s international alliances and commerce partnerships. Trump’s heat in direction of Russian President Vladimir Putin would additionally blunt western efforts to place strain on Beijing over its tacit help for Moscow’s battle in Ukraine.
However Shi cautioned in opposition to such hopes. Throughout his first time period, Trump revived the Quad alliance with Japan, Australia and India, enacted the Taiwan Journey Act permitting high-level officers from every nation to go to and initiated commerce hostilities in opposition to China.
Others pointed to Trump’s antagonism in direction of Beijing over the Covid-19 pandemic, which he known as labelled the “China virus”.
“From March 2020, he grew to become hysterical in direction of China,” Shi mentioned.
Harris, he added, “doesn’t make overthrowing the Chinese language authorities an open, programmatic objective, and has a lot larger coverage predictability than Trump”.