Earlier this month South Korea and Tajikistan signed an settlement to begin a feasibility examine for the Jaloliddini Balkhi-Jayhun-Nizhny Panj Railway mission. The mission is a 51-kilometer railway line that will lengthen Tajikistan’s railway community to the border crossing with Afghanistan at Nizhny Panj, also referred to as Panji Poyon within the Pamirs. The aim of the feasibility examine, anticipated to value $4 million, is to find out whether or not, and beneath what situations, the railway mission can be technically, financially, and economically viable.

The deliberate route travels from Dushanbe, Tajikistan’s capital, instantly by rail to the city of Jaloliddini Balkhi after which to Nizhny Panj. This is able to take away the necessity to switch items from railway to street. From Nizhny Panj, items can be trucked throughout the bridge spanning the border and the Panj River to Sher Khan Bandar in Afghanistan.

After the products cross over into Afghanistan, they might be transferred again onto rail and journey to Kunduz and Mazar-i-Sharif to both the Torkham border with Pakistan or towards Turkmenistan. The 65-km railway route from Kunduz and Mazar-i-Sharif and additional on to Turkmenistan has not been constructed but. The extension would make up the proposed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Tajikistan railway hall. 

The Korean Worldwide Cooperation Company (KOICA), a authorities company beneath the Ministry of Overseas Affairs of South Korea liable for offering growth help, is funding the feasibility examine.

The View From Tajikistan

This proposed railway hall is necessary for 2 causes. First, it might increase Tajikistan’s transit potential as it might permit Turkmenistan railway site visitors to succeed in Tajikistan with out having to transit Uzbekistan. Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have a historical past of mistrust and imposing excessive transit charges on vehicles crossing via their borders. Another excuse why this railway hall is necessary is as a result of it might permit Tajikistan to reap export and transit revenues and entice better transit flows.   

Tajikistan has deliberate to advertise worldwide freight transit via its territory however its choices are restricted as a result of it’s virtually fully transport depending on Uzbekistan. As such Dushanbe has prioritized attaining transport independence to the extent it realistically can.

In 1999, President Emomali Rahmon pushed for the development of the transcontinental freeway by way of Tashkent to Dushanbe or via Termez to Dushanbe, with additional hyperlinks to the Karakorum freeway to Pakistan. Nevertheless, a number of years later, the routes connecting Tajikistan with China, Afghanistan, and Kyrgyzstan are being emphasised. The Jaloliddini Balkhi-Jayhun-Nizhny Panj Railway mission falls beneath the latter route. 

For Tajikistan, transport tasks like this are considered methods to advertise the nation as a transit hub, which many in Central Asia are at present competing for. 

That is an formidable railway mission. The problem is that Tajikistan is landlocked and fairly an enormous nation. To acquire entry to seaports, that are necessary for financial progress, requires intensive and functioning railway infrastructure. A lot of the nation’s infrastructure dates to the Soviet period and is in want of restore and rehabilitation. 

Main challenges to the rail mission embody instability and environmental constraints. Whereas the mission is pushed primarily by Tajikistan, the majority of the route is definitely via Afghanistan. It begins from the center of Tajikistan however has to cross Afghanistan to succeed in any ports. Therefore Afghanistan is a major stakeholder and there are completely different necessities that should be balanced. Environmental issues are additionally a problem. The railway line will principally be working via the mountainous and rugged terrain of the Pamirs.

The View From South Korea

South Korea has lengthy flirted with the thought of a rail line all the way in which throughout Asia to Central Asia. Again in 2015 the speaker of South Korea’s Nationwide Meeting, Chung Ui-hwa, met with Rahmon and expressed his want for South Korea to cooperate with Tajikistan on transportation infrastructure. This additionally included railways. 

South Korea’s curiosity in Tajikistan’s railway is a part of its wider plan to kind a Trans-Korean Railway hall. First conceptualized in October 2013 by then-South Korean President Park Geun-hye, a “New Northern Coverage” was introduced, which was additional cemented in 2017 by then-President Moon Jae-in. The intention of the coverage was to reconnect the railways between North and South Korea and set up a brand new transportation community not solely on the Korean Peninsula however all through all of Northeast Asia. This is able to permit rail freight to journey between South Korea, North Korea, Russia and China – so far as Central Asia, too. 

Whereas the inter-Korea portion of the railroad has develop into much less and fewer possible amid deteriorating political relations, Seoul continues to be demonstrating curiosity within the Eurasian sections.

In August 2023, the Korea Railroad Company, the nationwide railway operator in South Korea, received the contract to offer consulting providers for the “Preliminary Survey for Development and Operation of Tajikistan’s City Railway.” This ran from August 2023 to June 2024 and was the primary such South Korean consulting mission in Central Asia. 

For South Korea, railway infrastructure in Tajikistan is necessary for a wide range of causes. Most significantly, it plans to attach the rail community of Tajikistan to the broader Trans-Korean railway hall and due to this fact helps scale back dependence on sea routes passing via the South China Sea, the Malacca Strait, and the Suez Canal. Occasions occurring in these main delivery routes have antagonized nations counting on them and have been a supply of confrontation. As such it has prompted lots of commerce insecurity and instability, which has prompted many nations to undertake a extra proactive hall method of their overseas coverage technique and seek for different transport routes. 

However present inter-Korean relations have been principally hostile and the way forward for the Jaloliddini Balkhi-Jayhun-Nizhny Panj Railway mission linking right into a Trans-Korean railway community stays unsure. In February 2024 North Korea’s parliament voted to abolish all financial cooperation agreements with South Korea and key tasks have been suspended.  

Railway tasks, like all different infrastructure tasks within the transport trade are long-term and as a rule don’t present speedy returns. So overseas buyers just like the Korean Railroad Cooperation that will probably be conducting the feasibility examine have to sense lasting stability within the nation earlier than making any investments. The payoffs of this rail line are tough to examine at this stage due to poor regional cooperation in Central Asia.

For railroads to perform successfully, a level of political acquiescence is a obligatory precondition. Whereas efforts are been made by the nations of Central Asia to harmonize their cross-border methods, they’re nonetheless very removed from establishing an built-in home transport community. To develop Tajikistan and the broader area’s transit potential, the nations want to ascertain a non-discriminatory coverage on their transit tariff charges, set up intermodal logistic facilities, resolve border disputes, and spend money on new roads and railways whereas repairing present ones.

Conclusion

It’s clear that transit corridors are necessary. Every integration endeavor in Central Asia advances in two dimensions: geopolitical and financial. Geopolitical elements might inhibit the financial and industrial viability of those tasks. 

With sizable infrastructure tasks like this, it is very important take the lengthy view.  When the Russia-U.S.-Europe relationship returns to a point of normality, the strengths of those Central Asia transport corridors will improve the transit advantages, making it a robust competitor to different main delivery routes, just like the South China Sea, the Gibraltar Strait, and the Suez Canal. This is able to improve the significance and affect of Central Asia in world affairs.