Wednesday, December 18, 2024

Failed Vaccine Trial, Pre-SA, Buying and selling Beneath Money

HilleVax (HLVX) (~$85MM market cap) is a clinical-stage biotech that focuses on creating vaccines, their preliminary focus has been on a vaccine (HIL-214) designed to deal with extreme acute gastroenteritis occasions in infants.  On Monday, the inventory crashed under money as HilleVax introduced their HIL-214 trial didn’t meet its major endpoint and confirmed no medical profit noticed throughout secondary endpoints.  Sadly, little different disclosures have been made; there was no announcement of searching for strategic options, no workforce discount and no estimate of present money.  The one point out of a go ahead technique was the road:

The Firm plans to discontinue additional improvement of HIL-214 in infants and is exploring the potential for continued improvement of HIL-214 and HIL-216, HilleVax’s Section 1 prepared vaccine candidate, in adults.

The piece about persevering with to discover the potential improvement of HIL-216 is barely regarding as damaged biotechnology firms go.  HIL-214 (the failed vaccine) was licensed from Takeda (which owns 14% of HLVX), HIL-216 was a separate licensing settlement with a Chinese language pharmaceutical firm, Kangh, and thus administration may make the argument the HIL-214 failure should not cloud the potential for HIL-214.  Nonetheless, as we have seen with many others, typically the board together with their advisors decide that the price of capital is simply too excessive to proceed on their very own they usually’ll probably resolve to pursue strategic options.

Operating by means of my typical again of the envelope liquidation math:

HilleVax does have an ATM in place they leaned on fairly closely in Q1 to lift roughly $15MM, in the event that they continued into Q2 (which you’ll inform they did a bit primarily based on the change in share rely from 3/31 to five/6 when the final 10-Q was revealed) it will solely add upside to the mathematics.  The chance is admittedly within the burn fee going ahead from right here (additionally word, my Q2 quantity above is an estimate primarily based on Q1) since we haven’t any indication from administration on their plan, my $50MM in a complete guess however utilizing some expertise from the final dozen or so of those, hopefully it’s directionally right.

There could possibly be two catalysts right here, one on the announcement of strategic options and one other on the last word conclusion, however HLVX is a bit riskier than others which are additional alongside of their wind down course of.

Disclosure: I personal shares of HLVX

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