Simply One other Manic Monday? On Monday, the Nasdaq plunged over 3%. With the S&P 500 dropping an identical quantity and the Dow plummeting over 1,000 factors (a 2.6% drop), it was the most important one-day drop since September 2022. Nonetheless, Japan’s Nikkei skilled a much more extreme decline, plummeting by a staggering 12%; its worst downfall because the notorious Black Monday on Wall Avenue in 1987.

The primary driver? Fears of a possible US recession sparked by the newest disappointing July jobs report. Including to the concern is that the Federal Reserve could also be a little bit too sluggish to chop rates of interest.

Tech Rebound or Inventory Market Mayhem?

The Magnificent Seven’s $714 wipeout Monday performed an enormous function in sinking the tech-heavy Nasdaq because it makes up over 40% of the Nasdaq 100. Including to the chaos, a choose dominated towards Google’s antitrust practices, and Berkshire Hathaway slashed its stake in Apple. 

Because the Nasdaq and the broader market bounce again in early Tuesday buying and selling, buyers are eyeing the rally and questioning: is that this the beginning of a comeback or only a transient pause earlier than one other slide?

To get a clearer image of the Nasdaq’s worth motion, let’s zoom out and have a look at a weekly chart of the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX).

CHART 1. WEEKLY CHART OF THE NASDAQ 100. Regardless of the severity of Monday’s drop, the longer-term uptrend appears intact.

The vary of Monday’s drop (see blue circle on the correct) was far better than most weekly ranges, and this was on a single day. 

However as you possibly can see, the candle seems to have reversed the preliminary drop, bouncing off the 50-period easy transferring common (SMA); the longer-term uptrend is undamaged.

However what if the Nasdaq have been to drop additional? Which ranges is perhaps prime shopping for alternatives, and which could scream “keep away”? Let’s swap to a day by day chart of Invesco QQQ Belief ETF, a Nasdaq 100 proxy. 

CHART 2. DAILY CHART OF QQQ. Momentum is weak, however indications of potential assist for additional draw back motion are clear.

You’ll be able to see the QQQ bounced off the 200-day SMA, which aligns intently with the weekly chart’s bounce off the 50-period SMA. The uptrend seems undisturbed by the latest selloff.

Control momentum through the Chaikin Cash Stream (CMF); it is nonetheless within the “promoting stress” zone. If it would not flip round, the rebound would possibly lack the momentum to maintain itself.

But when market sentiment and basic components trigger the QQQ to say no within the coming periods, the vary between $350 and $380 marks important ranges of potential assist for the next causes:

• If the elemental setting leans extra bullish than bearish, the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement vary constitutes an optimum entry level for these seeking to purchase the bounce.
• This vary is a concentrated hotspot for buying and selling exercise, as proven by the Quantity-by-Value indicator, and aligns with a powerful assist stage close to $350, examined 4 instances throughout summer season and fall 2023 (see black rectangle). A drop beneath $350 can result in extra draw back. So, maintain $350 in thoughts as the important thing stage the place any bullish outlook would possibly want a rethink.

What Are Analysts Saying?

It is combined. 

• JPMorgan: Assume there is a 50% probability of a recession. They count on the Fed to chop charges by 50 foundation factors in September and once more in November (if not an earlier emergency lower).
• Morgan Stanley: Enjoying it secure, they word the market’s seasonal weak point and doubt a second-half restoration. They see decrease fairness valuations and a bearish outlook within the brief time period.
• Nomura: Extra upbeat than the remainder, they see the “correction” as a shopping for alternative so long as the Fed proceeds with price cuts. Total, they’re betting on the AI increase to proceed fueling tech development.
• UBS: They see the present Volatility Index (VIX) motion as a sign for a possible purchase, however in addition they warn that there could also be extra draw back danger.

Closing Commerce

After Monday’s market mayhem, the Nasdaq is making an attempt to reverse its drop, however analysts’ forecasts are cut up. Whereas worth motion suggests a daring upside rebound, momentum signifies weak point within the bounce. In the end, the Nasdaq’s path will hinge on market sentiment and the Fed’s strikes. If short-term weak point drags the QQQ decrease, keep watch over the important thing ranges talked about above.

Disclaimer: This weblog is for instructional functions solely and shouldn’t be construed as monetary recommendation. The concepts and methods ought to by no means be used with out first assessing your individual private and monetary scenario, or with out consulting a monetary skilled.