Europe’s curiosity in Central Asia has elevated sharply following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Whereas this consideration is principally pushed by Europe’s need to diversify away from Russian fossil fuels, there are key variations within the methods during which particular person European nations pursue their respective power pursuits. Moreover power, geopolitical and safety issues more and more play a job in Europe’s engagement with Central Asia.

France and Italy are significantly lively within the area with their power and protection industries. Their major focus is Kazakhstan, adopted by Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.

Vitality

Within the power sector, France and Italy pursue comparable however distinct pursuits. For France, uranium is essential for the safety of its power system, which is dominated by nuclear power. Between 2013 and 2023, France sourced most of its uranium from Kazakhstan (27 %), Niger (20 %), and Uzbekistan (19 %). Following the 2023 army coup in Niger, reliance on Central Asian uranium is ready to extend.

Paris’ concentrate on securing uranium provides aligns with the ambitions of French mining large Orano, which performs a big function within the area’s uranium manufacturing. Orano holds a 51 % stake in KATCO, the world’s largest uranium producer, in partnership with Kazakhstan’s nationwide atomic power firm, Kazatomprom. Past Kazakhstan, Orano has expanded its operations into Uzbekistan, the place it fashioned the three way partnership Nurlikum Mining in 2019. Throughout French President Emmanuel Macron’s November 2023 go to to Uzbekistan, discussions signaled a mutual need to deepen this partnership, suggesting that France’s power footprint within the area is ready to develop.

A go to by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to Paris in November 2024 aimed to cement the deepening partnership between Kazakhstan and France. Round 200 firms with French capital at present function in Kazakhstan, spanning sectors resembling transportation, aerospace, and power. Amongst these, Orano stays pivotal, not solely in uranium mining but in addition as a possible accomplice in a global consortium to assemble a nuclear energy plant in Kazakhstan, which is more likely to additionally embrace Électricité de France (EDF). Moreover, a roadmap for bilateral cooperation in crucial uncooked supplies, signed throughout the go to, highlights a shared concentrate on the exploration and mining of important assets and the creation of sustainable provide chains. 

Whereas France’s power technique in Central Asia is centered on uranium, Italy has targeted totally on oil and fuel. Central Asia, with Kazakhstan specifically, has turn out to be a pretty various fossil gas provider for Europe, though a big share of Central Asian oil and fuel continues to be transported by way of Russia. Italy has accounted for 27.9 % of Kazakh oil exports, a lot of which is redistributed throughout Europe. Italian power large ENI, partially state-owned, is deeply entrenched in Kazakhstan’s oil and fuel sector. ENI holds vital stakes in two of Kazakhstan’s largest power fields: a 16.81 % share within the Kashagan offshore oil discipline and 29.25 % within the Karachaganak gas-condensate discipline. Italy’s investments in Kazakhstan lengthen past oil; in January 2024, Italian firms, together with ENI, pledged $1.5 billion in investments targeted on power and significant uncooked supplies throughout a Kazakh-Italian roundtable in Rome.

Italy’s power pursuits additionally stretch to Turkmenistan, dwelling to the world’s fourth-largest pure fuel reserves. Whereas formal cooperation between Italy and Turkmenistan stays restricted, latest developments may sign a shift. In August 2023, Turkmenistan signed a deal to provide pure fuel to the European Union, probably paving the best way for Italy to turn out to be a future purchaser. This highlights Italy’s rising function in diversifying Europe’s power provide because it seeks alternate options to Russian power, though largely specializing in fuel.

Collectively, these engagements mirror a broader European technique of securing partnerships for power assets in Central Asia. France and Italy’s efforts not solely underline the area’s significance as a key provider of uranium, oil, and fuel but in addition sign the potential for future collaboration in renewable power and significant uncooked supplies important for Europe’s power transition.

Safety

Since February 2022, Russia has been much less eager to export arms, and this has created alternatives for France and Italy. France specifically has sought to capitalize on strained relations between Astana and Moscow to develop its protection industries. It has had a army cooperation settlement with Kazakhstan since 2011, which laid the muse for arms commerce, personnel coaching, and joint workouts. Over the previous decade, French protection exports to Kazakhstan have included applied sciences resembling Thales’ Floor Grasp 400 air protection system, first delivered in 2014 and now partially produced in Kazakhstan via a three way partnership established in 2017. The availability of additional Floor Grasp 400 methods was introduced following Macron’s 2023 Astana go to, with the Élysée presenting the sale as “boosting the sovereignty” of Kazakhstan.

French protection ties with Kazakhstan lengthen past radar methods. Airbus, one other key participant, has delivered ten C295 transport plane since 2013, with extra orders. In April 2024, Airbus introduced that it had accomplished the manufacturing of the primary A400M army transport plane for the Kazakh Air Protection Forces, with a second A400M to be delivered on an undisclosed second.

Nevertheless, not all French ambitions have succeeded. Talks throughout Macron’s 2023 go to to Kazakhstan included the potential sale of Rafale fighter jets by Dassault Aviation, however in August 2024, Kazakhstan opted as a substitute for six Russian-made Su-30SM fighter jets, claiming the Rafale jets had been too costly. France’s supposed sale of Rafale fighter jets to Uzbekistan equally didn’t materialize. This represents a notable setback for France’s aspirations on Central Asian protection markets.

Italy, in the meantime, has established itself as a big provider of army {hardware} within the area, significantly to Turkmenistan. Knowledge from the Stockholm Worldwide Peace Analysis Institute (SIPRI) exhibits constant Italian protection exports to Turkmenistan, together with AW139 and A-109K helicopters, Falco UAVs, and naval weaponry resembling Compact 40L70 weapons and Marte-2 anti-ship missiles. In 2021 alone, Italy delivered an array of superior methods, together with Tremendous Fast 76mm naval weapons and C-27J Spartan transport plane. Italian firms have additionally offered to Kazakhstan, delivering comparable tools, resembling M-346FA plane, naval weapons, and Otomat-2 missiles. Smaller arms gross sales, together with Beretta rifles and pistols to Turkmenistan, mirror Italy’s broader protection footprint.

Each France and Italy’s protection engagements in Central Asia align carefully with the pursuits of their personal protection sectors. Firms like Thales, Dassault, and Leonardo have discovered Central Asia to be a probably profitable market, supported by their respective governments’ efforts to spice up their home champions and deepen strategic ties with key power suppliers. This convergence of geopolitical ambition and personal trade curiosity highlights the twin goal of those protection offers: increasing affect in an more and more strategic area whereas reinforcing power safety relationships.

Central Asia’s Perspective

For Central Asian governments, the rising engagement of French and Italian power and protection industries presents a possibility to diversify their exterior partnerships past Russia and China whereas securing entry to superior know-how and experience. Kazakhstan exemplifies this technique via its multi-vector international coverage, which prioritizes engagement with quite a lot of worldwide companions quite than alignment with a single bloc or actor. 

The market in Central Asia is essentially dominated by Chinese language firms, which compete with the Europeans. Orano, for instance, faces stiff competitors in Uzbekistan from China’s state-run China Nuclear Uranium within the growth of latest mines. China can also be the primary buyer of Turkmen fuel, and whereas Turkmenistan undoubtedly views Europe as a profitable potential marketplace for pure fuel exports, plans for a pipeline connecting it to Europe have to this point did not materialize. 

Safety considerations additionally issue closely into the issues of Central Asian governments. For Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, longstanding considerations in regards to the spillover of Islamist extremism from Afghanistan have intensified with the resurgence of the Taliban. Moreover dealing with actual threats from militant teams, Central Asian governments have routinely used the label of violent extremism to jail political opponents. This offers safety forces a crucial function within the Central Asian political regimes.

Whereas European protection partnerships might be enticing for reinforcing their safety forces, Central Asian governments are more likely to proceed exploiting their place in a aggressive market to achieve their required army {hardware}. Each European governments and firms face stiff competitors in Central Asia. Russian affect within the area stays robust, which is exemplified by Kazakhstan’s alternative of Russia’s Su-30SM fighter jets over the French Rafale.

Europe not solely faces competitors from Russia within the area; China, Turkiye, India and Iran, amongst others, have more and more provided army coaching and tools. This raises a crucial query: To what extent can European nations and firms, typically related to high-priced tools, set up themselves as viable long-term safety companions within the area?

Central Asia’s evolving geopolitical function isn’t just about balancing exterior actors; it’s about leveraging these partnerships to pursue their very own nationwide and elite pursuits. By partaking with a broader array of nations, Central Asian states intention to spice up their sovereignty, diversify their economies, and strengthen their safety forces. On this context, the rising presence of French and Italian firms in power and protection provides potential advantages, however Central Asian governments will, in the meanwhile, possible proceed to hedge their bets amongst a spread of worldwide companions.