Good morning. As we speak, I write on how Europe is ready — or a minimum of is telling itself it has ready — for the US election, and our parliament correspondent has information on the newest crackdown on Chinese language on-line retailers.

Judgment day

In 2020, European Fee president Ursula von der Leyen’s cupboard arrange a particular TV room within the EU’s headquarters to observe the US election outcomes roll in. This time, her aides could be clever to ensure there’s house to cover behind the couch.

Context: America goes to the polls at the moment to elect their subsequent president, with Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris in a digital lifeless warmth, in keeping with many of the opinion polling. The greenback and US authorities debt yields fell yesterday in indicators traders had pared their bets on a Trump victory, as each candidates targeted their last hours of campaigning on the essential swing state of Pennsylvania.

Months of pearl-clutching, prophecies and tried preparations by the EU for a doable return of President Trump finish at the moment as polls open, in a race that would have seismic impacts on European defence, commerce and generations of transatlantic coverage.

“In 2016, we had been mainly hoping for the perfect,” mentioned one senior EU diplomat, referring to Trump’s first election. “Now, a minimum of there was some preparation . . . in concept.”

That preparation has been achieved by main EU capitals, but additionally contained in the fee. A small working group arrange earlier this 12 months has drawn up potential response methods to Trump, together with a pre-cooked commerce deal to keep away from his risk to impose blanket import tariffs, and doable initiatives to partially offset any withdrawal of US army help to Europe.

However most senior officers across the EU are privately sceptical concerning the tangible advantages of such work, apart from offering a theoretical consolation blanket ought to Trump win.

“We are saying we all know what he’s like,” mentioned a senior EU official concerned within the Trump-proofing talks. “[But] we don’t know what he’s like.”

Many additionally warning in opposition to the complacency of deciphering victory for Harris as a serious aid for the EU. On structural, long-term points comparable to Europe’s widening competitiveness hole with the US and its over-reliance on America for defence and safety, the EU must push forward with cures no matter who’s the subsequent US president.

In keeping with inside assessments seen by the Monetary Occasions, the fee believes {that a} Harris administration would broadly proceed Joe Biden’s strategy, together with present mushy protectionist insurance policies and viewing China as the foremost geopolitical precedence, even when which means collateral harm in opposition to Europe.

“Whoever wins these elections, we are going to work with Kamala Harris, we are going to work with Donald Trump. I’ve little question,” Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte mentioned yesterday.

Although Rutte supplied a fairly sobering reference to again up his confidence: “It’s in our curiosity right here, but additionally in america’, as a result of they aren’t on this to repeat the error after the primary world struggle of withdrawing from Europe.”

Gulp.

Chart du jour: Deindustrialisation

Over the previous three years, Europe’s largest financial system has slowly however steadily sunk into disaster. However what is occurring now’s “unprecedented”.

Unboxing

It’s “virtually inconceivable to manage” the contents of parcels coming into the EU from China and elsewhere, the EU’s incoming commerce commissioner has admitted, because the bloc tries to higher police overseas on-line retailers, writes Andy Bounds.

Context: Shoppers are more and more ordering low cost items from web sites comparable to China’s Temu and Shein. The European Fee has launched an investigation into Temu for allegedly promoting counterfeit items.

Maroš Šefčovič advised a European parliament affirmation listening to yesterday that the EU needed to introduce a proposed new customs regime two years early, in 2026 fairly than 2028, because the variety of packages hits 4bn this 12 months.

He mentioned some imports, most of which arrive by aircraft, had been harmful and didn’t adjust to EU requirements.

When requested by Inexperienced MEP Anna Cavazzini what the EU ought to do concerning the “unsafe and unlawful items flooding our market”, Šefčovič mentioned it was “virtually inconceivable to manage with out correct instruments”.

The deliberate reform would introduce an EU customs authority and centralise knowledge. It might additionally scrap a threshold exempting gadgets value lower than €150 from duties. In 2023, 2.3bn in customs-exempt gadgets had been imported into the EU, in keeping with the fee.

However member states have opposed the brand new laws for years, over fears of transferring extra powers to Brussels. Šefčovič now desires them to agree a joint place within the first half of subsequent 12 months, so it will possibly come into pressure the next 12 months.

He additionally mentioned nationwide enforcement groups for product security wanted extra coaching and co-ordination.

What to observe at the moment

1. EU finance ministers meet.

2. Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte meets Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in Rome.

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