With the continued US/Israel rampage throughout the Center East, we’re getting an rising variety of glimpses into the darkish recesses of the neocon thoughts. This consists of fantasies like “whole victory” and daydreams about Israel assassinating Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. We not too long ago featured one such imaginative and prescient right here at Bare Capitalism from neocon-connected Simon Watkins at OilPrice. In it, he raises an possibility for Israel in attacking Iran out of Azerbaijan,  which might result in one other entrance in conflict, destruction of Center East and Caspian vitality infrastructure, the tanking of the worldwide economic system, and probably the deaths of lots of of 1000’s of individuals, if no more — simply the same old neocon reverie.

Whereas Watkins model is unlikely (see feedback on his piece right here), there are pathways for the Caucasus to get sucked into the US/Israel slaughter within the Center East. Neocon fever goals sadly do play a job, however there’s additionally quite a bit else happening, and I’d prefer to take a extra sober have a look at that right here.

The Caucasus is on the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and the Center East, and is subsequently probably the most contested facilities for the very important problems with vitality switch and commerce logistics. All the most important gamers from the Center East conflicts, in addition to others, are closely concerned in geopolitical maneuvering right here.

A lot of the intrigue within the Caucasus facilities across the so-called Zangezur Hall, a 42-kilometer strip of land in southern Armenia wedged between Azerbaijan and its exclave, Nakhchivan, and bordered by Iran to the south.

This small piece of coveted territory performs an outsized function in bigger commerce and vitality initiatives resulting from the truth that whoever controls it can enhance their affect within the area. It’s of main curiosity to all the big gamers within the wider Center East battle, together with Iran, Russia, Türkiye, Israel, and the US.

The latter occurs to be in massive management of its destiny due its current infiltration of the Armenian authorities, which has turn out to be an outpost of the US, and the Zangezur Hall is an enormous bargaining chip for Washington.

The nine-point ceasefire settlement signed below Russian mediation that ended the 2020 conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia included a  stipulation that the latter is liable for guaranteeing the safety of transport hyperlinks between the western areas of Azerbaijan and Nakhichevan, facilitating the unhindered motion of residents, automobiles and cargo in each instructions. Azerbaijan and Turkiye have latched onto that time, insisting they’ve the fitting to arrange transportation hyperlinks via southern Armenia.

Baku desires journey of individuals and cargo between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan to be freed from inspection and customs and expects Yerevan to comply with the deployment of Russian border guards alongside the hall. Moscow agrees with the deployment of its border guards, even when it doesn’t see eye to eye on the customs difficulty (it desires the Russians to conduct the safety checks).

Whereas Türkiye, Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia won’t see eye to eye on Zangezur, there had been a concerted effort to seek out some settlement that works for all sides. Baku wished a broader “3+3” framework, involving Russia, Iran, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia. Russia was steering the method till Armenia final yr turned to the US and EU to switch Moscow, a call that shortly resulted in Armenia’s lack of the contested Nagorno-Karabakh territory and greater than 100,000 ethnic Armenians fleeing.

The insertion of the US into the equation makes a peaceable settlement extra unlikely whereas rising the chances that destabilization spills over from the Center East.

The start line for any battle within the southern Caucasus that pulls in outdoors actors could be one other spherical of combating between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The latter receives heavy navy assist from Israel and Türkiye whereas Armenia is now a western proxy with assist primarily from France and the US, in addition to India.

Whereas Washington unleashes the crazies — each within the State Division and in its proxy states the place its fevered assist of neo-Nazis, jihadis, and genocidaires more and more seems to be like a go-for-broke technique — it will be stunning if it and Israel didn’t attempt to push ahead with extra recklessness within the Caucasus.

Will the opposite actors — Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Russia — be capable to discover mutually acceptable paths ahead fairly than battle?

The prospects aren’t wanting so nice in the meanwhile. Peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia (with heavy enter from the People) meant to settle long-festering border points, in addition to the Zangezur query, are at present circling the drain. The chief maintain up is the Zangezur difficulty.

On October 14, Azerbaijan’s protection minister instructed the nation’s navy to remain on excessive alert and “to be able to take preventive measures in opposition to all attainable provocations of revanchist forces on the conditional border.”

Each Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Erdoğan have made frequent statements about taking the Zangezur Hall by power if needed, and in any new battle between Azerbaijan and Armenia it’s fully attainable — if unlikely — that they make an effort to take action.

The issue there may be that Iran is more and more frightened concerning the prospect of the hall as its affect is below assault throughout the Center East and is drawing pink traces because it turns into remoted on the difficulty.

It’s simple sufficient to think about loads of situations below which battle spreads from the Center East to the Caucasus, particularly when factoring within the machinations of the present all-or-nothing US/Israel strategy. Fairly than speculate on these hypotheticals, I’ll right here present a short abstract of the positions of all of the gamers as they relate to the Zangezur Hall and the way their positioning is probably going connected to the present US/Israel rampage within the Center East.

Iran 

Tehran is reportedly making it clear to the US that if Israel/US assaults its vitality infrastructure, it can reply in type within the area, and that features not simply the Center East however the South Caucasus as nicely — particularly Azerbaijan.

That is sensible as Azerbaijan provides 40 per cent of Israel’s vitality wants. The robust weapons-for-energy relations between Israel and Azerbaijan continues to be a significant concern for Iran the place the media report on secret Israeli navy bases in Azerbaijan and the idea that sabotage in opposition to Iran is regularly directed by Israel from Azerbaijan.

On the difficulty of the Zangezur Hall, Tehran says that it crosses its pink line.

Regional peace, safety and stability just isn’t merely a choice, however a pillar of our nationwide safety.

Any menace from North, South, East, or West to territorial integrity of our neighbors or redrawing of boundaries is completely unacceptable and a pink line for Iran.

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) September 5, 2024

The implementation of the Zangezur Hall could be a unfavourable for Tehran in about each conceivable approach. Iran could be eradicated as a bypass route round Armenia. Particulars from Al Monitor:

Iran earns a 15% fee from Azerbaijan’s fuel provides to Nakhchivan. It serves additionally as a route for Turkish exports to Central Asia. A mean of about 12,000 Turkish vehicles use the route month-to-month, with Iran charging passage charges of as much as $800 for his or her 1,800-kilometer (1,120-mile) journey to the Turkmenistan border.

Greater than the cash, nonetheless, Iran doesn’t wish to lose affect over Azerbaijan, which depends on transit via Iran to connect with its exclave. And Tehran is very frightened a couple of NATO Turan Hall which sees the West hyperlink up hypothetical consumer states all through central Asia. From  Dr. Vali Kaleji, a Tehran-based professional on Central Asia and Caucasian Research:

Iran sees the creation of the Zangezur hall as a matter past the entry of the Republic of Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan exclave and believes that this hall will present direct navy entry for Türkiye as a NATO member within the Caucasus and west of the Caspian Sea. Certainly, a major variety of Iranian elites and specialists consider that the growth of Türkiye’s presence within the South Caucasus, particularly via the Zangezur hall, will strengthen pan-Turkism within the area, which is a direct menace to the Azeri areas of north-western Iran.

In 2022 Iran opened a brand new consulate in southern Armenia and has carried out extra frequent navy drills on its border with Azerbaijan, in addition to within the Caspian Sea. Ought to Azerbaijan and Türkiye try and take Armenian land by power, an Iranian intervention would make sense, however what’s Tehran to do if Armenia agrees to the Zangezur Hall? Taking motion in that case would come at a second when Iran’s plate is very full and put Tehran at odds with everybody else within the area, together with Russia.

In September, Iran summoned the Russian ambassador over Moscow’s assist for Zangezur. There are experiences of different points between Iran and Russia, though it’s unclear how a lot meat is on the bone there. Regardless, current information from the South Caucasus is cause for extra concern for Tehran.

On October 8, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and Russian President Vladimir Putin introduced that Russian border guards will withdraw from the Armenian-Iranian checkpoint by January 1. Since 1992 Armenia’s borders with Türkiye and Iran have been the duty of Russian troops.

Resulting from Armenia’s cozying as much as NATO and paired with Azerbaijan being a Mossad outpost, Tehran understandably views this growth as a part of an rising menace from its north.

Israel and Azerbaijan

Azerbaijan desires the Zangezur Hall. The query is how do they wish to get there?

The issue is that if they go for it, the US/Israel may attempt to ensure it turns into a battle. You may perceive temptation for Türkiye and Azerbaijan however may play proper into entice. Little question this merchandise was below dialogue by Putin and Aliev throughout the former’s go to to Baku in August and up to now Azerbaijan — which additionally has robust ties to China (extra on that later) — is refusing to play its function within the West’s try and direct the play.

Relations between Iran and Azerbaijan have lengthy been tough resulting from quite a lot of points, however it’s necessary to do not forget that doesn’t at all times imply infinite escalation till battle because it regularly does for nations within the orbit of the rules-based worldwide order. Baku and Tehran additionally discover methods to cooperate, reminiscent of on the Worldwide North-South Transport Hall that may run via each nations and join Russia to India.

That being stated, Baku’s pleasant relationship with Israel is more and more problematic, and either side are accusing the opposite of espionage and terrorism. From 2016 to 2020 Tel Aviv accounted for 69 p.c of Azerbaijan’s main arms imports, together with its loitering munitions, which gained notoriety within the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Battle.

This relationship with Israel serves as a counterweight to Iranian affect on Azerbaijan, which incorporates stress in opposition to the event of trans-Caspian routes via Azerbaijan. There may be additionally the difficulty of Iran’s West Azerbaijan and East Azerbaijan Provinces, that are principally populated by Azeris and Kurds. Baku makes some noise about self-determination, however that is principally an American neocons dream. They’ve lengthy imagined utilizing the ethnic Azerbaijani inhabitants in Iran to destabilize the nation. Oddly sufficient, Iran’s present president Masoud Pezeshkian, who got here to energy after his predecessor died in a helicopter crash on a return flight from Azerbaijan, is a component ethnic Azeri, as is Supreme Chief Ali Hosseini Khamenei.

In response to non-neocon accounts, (and possibly some Iran professional readers can add extra perception) Iranian Azeris are principally nicely built-in into Iranian society and there’s not an entire lot of dissatisfaction for out of doors actors to take advantage of. That hardly ever stops the neocons, nonetheless, who usually view battle as the important thing to unlock repressed ethnic tensions that can be unleashed of their favor.

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I’m sadly operating brief on time as we speak, and should cope with US machinations, Russian pursuits, and the numerous unusual and attention-grabbing current developments with Türkiye in a second put up on this matter tomorrow.