Regardless of the long-standing anticipation of Bitcoin reaching 100K which the Holdrs and Bulls had been patiently ready for and at last occurred this week, there’s now the hereafter.
My common readers know that I personally shouldn’t have positions in any of the cryptocurrencies or ETFs that I touch upon technically in my Weekly Research and the rationale for that. Opinion is well clouded by the center and want.
Regardless of the long-standing anticipation of Bitcoin reaching 100K which the Holdrs and Bulls had been patiently ready for and at last occurred this week, there’s now the hereafter.
My common readers know that I personally shouldn’t have positions in any of the cryptocurrencies or ETFs that I touch upon technically in my Weekly Crypto and ETF Research. The rational for that, “Opinion is well clouded by the center and its want”. Because of this, from the outset, I selected to keep away from any temptation to commerce or make investments (not straightforward for one who was a institutional dealer in a former life) within the devices I observe on a technical foundation for my readers.
Though on a purely technical foundation, “spherical quantity” resistance by itself does’ benefit consideration technically, nevertheless it stands by itself and isn’t pure value resistance (extra on that follows). Usually used when costs have reached “blue sky” territory it marks a degree the place buyers, within the collective psyche, have marked a “value purpose”. Within the case of Bitcoin “when it will get to 100K I’m a vendor” or “time to peel some off” (simply two examples).
Pure value resistance (or assist) takes on many varieties. To call a number of, earlier value pivot factors, value retracement ranges utilizing Fibonacci Evaluation, value congestion areas the place interplay between patrons and sellers have acted previous to a value transfer that had adopted, development resistance or assist using development line or Median Line Evaluation and the Cloud mannequin. When there’s a confluence of those the extra weight must be positioned on the outlined degree, versus one phycological knowledge level.
Earlier this week, previous to Bitcoin’s overtaking of the symbolic 100K degree, I posted this chart to social media. My technical feedback regarded what I believed was the popular Elliott Wave depend. In that, a wave 2 corrective wave was unfolding because the completion of Wave 1 that discovered its genesis on the October lows. I assumed at the moment that it was posible that the 38.2 retracement of wave 3 (P2 to P3) could be examined however the remaining underlying power was stronger than I assumed and at the moment value has, after a short intraday dip beneath the Decrease Parallel yesterday, has moved again above the 100K degree and is ready to problem the Median Line (purple dotted line) of the Schiff Pitchfork (purple P1 via P3). My principal concern rearding a continuation within the value rally stays. Though it stays constructive territory, MACD continues to trace decrease beneath its sign line and the Stochastic Momentum Index is waffling sideways. The Candy Sixteen Momentum / Breadth Oscillator registered a decrease excessive final Sunday and has fallen beneath its 13-Day SMA (purple line). If value can overtake the Median Line and shut above it I might really feel extra comfy saying that the 2-week, wave 2 sideways consolidation has run its course and the measured transfer out of the “field” targets 104,400 simply above Thursday’s intra-day excessive.
Extra particulars on this week’s Market’s Compass Crypto Candy Sixteen Examine that will probably be despatched to my paid subscribers Sunday morning.